Calculated decision

With Brexit and Scottish independence looming Theresa May is under pressure to call a General Election now which she is likely to win with a much bigger majority, mainly thanks to Jeremy Corbyn. It’s unlikely she will even if she has the example of Gordon Brown – who bottled out when the polls suggested he might win an election and later slumped to defeat. Most Tories don’t want an election now because it would throw a lifeline to those Labour MPs who will lose their seats in 2020 after the new boundary changes kick in. The number of constituencies is being cut by 50 and, while the Conservatives will lose ten to 15 MPs, between 25 and 30 Labour members will get the boot. This is an almost irresistible electoral bonus for the Tories and many of them would be dismayed if Mrs May wasted it.