Analysis: Aston Villa ending year of recovery under serious threat of relapse

Just seven days on from suffering the nightmare before Christmas against Southampton, Dean Smith’s team served up an even more frightening experience for supporters by crashing to defeat at Watford, further heightening fears the good work of the past 12 months is at risk of going to waste.

Trailing 1-0 to a team who had recorded just three wins during the first half of the Premier League season, Villa were handed a lifeline when the hosts were reduced to 10 men just prior to the hour mark.

The fact Watford managed to then score another two goals, while Villa failed to register a serious shot on target, says pretty much everything anyone would ever need to know about what, even by recent standards, was the grimmest afternoon of Smith’s 14-month reign to date.

Not even some questionable officiating, or the continuing circus of VAR, could even begin to excuse this showing.

The good news for Villa, if it can be described as such, is they head into the New Year just one point from safety and still two ahead of the Hornets.

Yet few of those present at Vicarage Road on Saturday who will be picking Smith’s men as the more likely to dig their way out of trouble. Certainly, not on this evidence.

After the brief Boxing Day boost of beating Norwich, albeit unconvincingly, this was another punch to the stomach of a Villa team from whom confidence has rapidly ebbed during a run of five defeats in six league matches.

Worryingly, not for the first time in recent weeks, Smith found himself questioning the commitment of his players in the aftermath.

By the same token, the head coach must surely know there are increasing numbers of those watching from the stands beginning to question him.

Far from being a performance to silence the doubters, this was one to further fuel frustrations at Smith's perceived stubborness in sticking with a system which, to a large extent, opponents have sussed out.

At the very least, it was odd to see Jack Grealish stationed back out on the left wing just 48 hours after his man-of-the-match performance in central midfield against the Canaries.

With their skipper frequently isolated on the flank, Villa lacked cohesion in the middle of the park, with neither Henri Lansbury, Conor Hourihane or the erratic Douglas Luiz able to provide the necessary drive or grit.

Perhaps most puzzling was Smith’s delay in changing things once Adrian Mariappa had been shown a second yellow card on the 57th minute.

In the head coach’s defence, Villa were about to bring on Trezeguet, a switch which would have seen Grealish move into the middle, just moments before Matt Targett suffered the hamstring injury decisive in the build-up to Watford’s second goal.

Forced to bring on Frederic Guilbert instead, with Targett unable to continue, Smith did not make his third change and introduce Jonathan Kodjia until after Ismaila Sarr had netted the home side’s third. By then, the game was already lost.

Targett’s injury was unfortunate but Smith’s hesitation ultimately costly. In truth it was already clear, even before half-time, Villa’s approach needed a rethink.

Smith, never one to lose his temper lightly, claimed to have read his team "the riot act” during the interval and later declared himself satisfied with the response, at least until Watford’s second goal. Yet there will be few who agree with his assertion Villa began the second half better than they finished the first.

Having coached and selected a team which has now lost eight of its last 11 Premier League matches, Smith cannot have any complaints about the increasing scrutiny under which he now finds himself.

But neither is he the only person at the club who requires a period of reflection as the year draws to close.

So too do the players whose heads are too quick to drop, among whom many still need to convince they are good enough for this level. And so too do those members of the club’s hierarchy who sanctioned and in some cases drove a £127m summer rebuild which prioritised potential over experience.

It is the latter quality in which Villa have been found so sorely lacking over recent weeks, as the promise of the season’s opening months has evaporated. Needless to say, it is a deficiency which urgently requires addressing, during a January transfer window shaping up to be pivotal to their survival hopes.

Villa do not have long to gather themselves before being flung into the next test at Burnley barely 48 hours from now.

Smith will hope to have Tyrone Mings back for the trip to Turf Moor and there is no doubt Villa have missed the influence of their defensive leader since he left the field with a hamstring injury against Leicester earlier in the month.

Mings is one of the club’s several success stories of 2019 and it could be argued that, even allowing for the current slide, Villa are ending the year in a much stronger position than where they started, sat mid-table in the Championship. For that, they mostly have Smith to thank.

Yet to talk of the bigger picture is rather irrelevant when you are losing matches in this manner. The club’s ambitious medium and long-term plans depend entirely on results in the short-term. Smith is no fool and knows he needs to find solutions and pretty sharpish too.

For much of 2019 Villa looked like a club finally united and moving forward as one after a near decade of decline. Yet such spirit is a precious commodity and it does not take long for cracks to emerge.

The faces of those supporters who still remained in the away end at Vicarage Road at the final whistle wore looks borne less from frustration than genuine anger.

It was a snapshot to a recent past Villa thought they had left behind. It is going to require the effort of everyone at the club to ensure there is no return.