Monday analysis: Second-half collapse casts doubt over Aston Villa's true potential

Instead, it was Leeds United who delivered by far the biggest statement in the latest Villa Park thriller.

A superb second-half comeback from Marcelo Bielsa’s visitors saw them snatch the points and climb back to the top of the Championship.

Counterpart Dean Smith, by contrast, was left shaking his head as he walked off the pitch in the drizzle, having suffered the first-ever defeat of his managerial career in B6.

Since being relegated from the Premier League in 2016, Villa are not used to being beaten on their own turf.

Leeds became only the seventh visiting team to do so and none of those previous defeats inflicted on the hosts have been so nearly as dramatic, or potentially as season-defining.

At half-time, Villa sat two goals to the good and were heading seventh in the table, just two points outside the play-off positions and only nine behind their opponents. By full-time, after Kemar Roofe had struck the most devastating of stoppage-time blows, those gaps stood at five and 15 respectively, a huge swing in the context of a campaign which now stands at the midway point.

Smith might not be ready, at least in public, to give up on the automatic promotion dream.

Yet in truth, it is hard to see Villa overhauling the likes of Leeds, Norwich or Albion from here. Not when their defence remains so horribly fragile and porous.

Teams who win promotion do not blow two-goal leads at home. For all their recent improvement, Villa have continued to play a dangerous game at the back and against Leeds, who may well be the best team in the division, they were ruthlessly exposed.

The statistics do not make pleasant reading. Villa have now conceded 12 goals in the last four home games and are on course to let in more than 70 over the course of the season.

Yet while the problem is obvious, how best to fix it is another matter. Smith might have thought he was making some headway when four clean sheets were kept in his first eight games at the helm.

Old habits, however, die hard. The past three games have seen a regression, with Villa continuing to provide their opposition with plenty of chances. Leeds had already gone close on several occasions even before Jack Clarke got them back into it with his first career goal, 11 minutes into the second half.

Villa’s only solution seems to be to keep scoring, but when the goals dry up – as they did yesterday after the easy double blast – they are unable to keep the ball out of their own net.

Part of the blame must be placed at the door of Steve Bruce, Smith’s predecessor, whose failure to recruit another centre-back during the summer and then allow Tommy Elphick to leave on loan left Villa with barely any back-up.

The loss of Axel Tuanzebe to a foot injury means James Bree, who prior to yesterday had not played since early October, must now fulfil the role of emergency centre-back before Smith can strengthen in January. Neil Taylor's absence with a hamstring injury has also been felt.

Even allowing for the lack of numbers, it remains concerning just how many senior players are committing basic errors.

Ahmed Elmohamady has been one of Villa’s most reliable performers since joining from Hull 18 months ago. In the space of two weeks, he has now been at fault for three goals, including Roofe’s winner yesterday when he weakly headed a clearance right into the Leeds striker’s path.

The defensive calamities are now overshadowing what is happening at the other end of the pitch, where Villa continue to ooze goals.

There were moments, after Abraham and Hourihane had given them the perfect start, when they threatened to blow Leeds away. Just one better pass in the final third, particularly in the opening 10 minutes of the second period when Villa raised the tempo, might have led to the third goal from which for the visitors there would have been no coming back.

Yet having survived the onslaught, Leeds visibly grew in confidence and Villa, as they have for much of the season, simply lacked the discipline to see the game out.

Smith now has two days to rally his players, after a result which was unquestionably the lowest point of his reign and quite possibly the whole season to date.

True, cabbage-gate and the ugly scenes which brought about the end of Bruce’s reign provide some fair competition on that front. But the quality of performances shown against Derby, Middlesbrough and Albion had undoubtedly raised expectations. After yesterday, those may now need to be recalibrated.

Perhaps the biggest positive is that Villa have emerged from what on paper was a bruising run of fixtures against the Championship’s leading lights still in contact with the top six.

The road, though, gets only a little easier. Swansea, their Boxing Day opponents, sit only a place and a point further back. Preston, who they visit on Saturday, are much improved, while New Year’s Day visitors QPR are actually ahead of them in the table.

Villa’s firepower means they will always be a threat, but their own fragility is now all too clear for opponents, who know they will get chances.

In terms of entertainment value, Smith’s team must now surely be ranked the best in the Championship. These last four games at Villa Park, dating back to last month’s Second City derby, have seen a total of 25 goals, with yesterday’s match another superb advert for the division.

That will be of absolutely no consolation for Smith, who is left facing a Christmas with plenty to ponder.