Sunak braced for double by-election test in Wellingborough and Kingswood

Voters will head to the polls in two by-elections that could give an indication of the scale of the challenges facing the main political parties ahead of a national contest later this year.

Rishi Sunak is braced for tests in Wellingborough and Kingswood, where Labour hopes to flip Tory majorities in the tens of thousands.

Headlines this week have been dominated by a different by-election – the upcoming Rochdale vote, in which Labour’s candidate has had party support withdrawn over remarks he made about Israel and Jewish people.

But Thursday’s results will also be significant, with a Tory defeat in either constituency meaning that the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.

Both votes are seen largely as two-horse races between Labour and the Conservatives – though the Tories are also threatened by strengthening support for Reform UK, which is targeting disgruntled voters on the right.

The circumstances surrounding both by-elections could also prove difficult for the governing party.

Kingswood’s vote was triggered by Chris Skidmore’s resignation as an MP in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.

He won the Gloucestershire constituency for the Tories at the past four general elections, before which Labour held it at every general election since 1992.

The Opposition needs a much smaller swing to overturn the Conservative majority of 11,220 than the ones it recently secured in Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire.

The by-election in Wellingborough comes after former Tory MP Peter Bone received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.

He won the Northamptonshire constituency at every general election from 2005 to 2019, with Labour coming second in four of the five contests and Ukip in 2015. His majority in 2019 was 18,540.

The swing needed by Labour to win the seat is at 17.9 percentage points – in other words, the equivalent of a net change of 18 in every 100 people who voted Tory at the last general election switching sides.

This is still a smaller swing than the ones managed by Labour in 2023 at the Tamworth, Selby & Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire contests.

Defeat in either or both Wellingborough and Kingswood would mean the Tories have lost more by-elections in a parliament than any government since the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which suffered 15 losses.

The selection of Mr Bone’s partner, Helen Harrison, as the Conservative candidate standing in his former seat has been a source of controversy, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last month declining to say whether he would be campaigning for her.

“Candidate selection is done locally… that’s how it works in our party,” he told a PM Connect event in January.

“Of course I want to win all by-elections and the message I would say to all the people in Wellingborough is the same as the message I say to all of you today – we had a difficult year last year, but we have made progress.”

Labour has picked Gen Kitchen as the party’s candidate in Wellingborough, who will stand along with 10 other hopefuls: Ana Gunn (Liberal Democrat), Ben Habib (Reform), Nick the Flying Brick (Official Monster Raving Loony), Ankit Love Jknpp Jay Mala Post-Mortem (no description), Alex Merola (Britain First), Will Morris (Green), Andre Pyne-Bailey (Independent), Marion Turner-Hawes (no description), Kev Watts (Independent) and Ms Harrison.

There are six candidates standing in Kingswood: Sam Bromiley (Conservative), Andrew Brown (Liberal Democrat), Damien Egan (Labour), Lorraine Francis (Green), Rupert Lowe (Reform) and Nicholas Wood (Ukip).

According to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta, the lead enjoyed by Labour over the Conservatives has dropped by seven points after a turbulent couple of weeks for the party.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party has held a sustained double-digit advantage over the Tories in national opinion polls, but the past week has been overshadowed by criticism of remarks made by Rochdale candidate Azhar Ali.

Mr Ali apologised after he was recorded during a meeting of Lancashire Labour members suggesting that Israel had taken Hamas’ October 7 attack as a pretext to invade Gaza.

The party leadership initially stood by him, but withdrew its backing after the Daily Mail reported he had also blamed “people in the media from certain Jewish quarters” for the suspension of Labour MP Andy McDonald.

A second parliamentary candidate, Graham Jones, was suspended on Tuesday after audio obtained by website Guido Fawkes appeared to show the former Labour MP using abusive language at the same meeting Mr Ali attended.

Polls close at 10pm on Thursday, with the results expected to be declared in the early hours of Friday.

The Rochdale by-election will take place on February 29.

Due to new laws brought in by the Government, voters will need to bring photo ID – such as a passport or driving licence – in order to cast their ballots.