Express & Star

How the Black Country, Staffordshire and North Worcestershire is set to vote at the General Election, according to latest polls

Labour will take six West Midlands seats from the Conservatives on the July 4 General Election – helping Sir Keir Starmer to a landslide 138-seat majority.


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At least that's what will happen according to the latest polling data, which has been broken down to give a General Election seat-by-seat analysis.

The study, by UK Polling Report, says Labour will make a clean sweep in Wolverhampton, taking all three seats, including Wolverhampton West and Wolverhampton North East which are at the moment held by the Tories.

Walsall and Bloxwich, West Bromwich, Halesowen, and Tipton and Wednesbury will also fall to Labour.

Stafford, which has in the past been something of a bellwether seat, is a dead heat.

The research shows that Reform UK could prove crucial to Labour by taking votes from the Conservatives.

Will Reform UK cost James Morris his Halesowen seat?

In Wolverhampton North East, Labour's Sureena Brackenbridge has a lead of 13.8 per cent over incumbent Conservative Jane Stevenson – with Reform taking a 13.83 per cent share of the vote.

In Halesowen, the Reform effect is even more profound: Labour's Alex Ballinger is polling 2.06 per cent above incumbent Tory James Morris. If the polling proves to be accurate, Reform's 11.05 per cent share of the vote could prove crucial in tipping the balance in Labour's favour.

However, in other seats, such as Wolverhampton West, West Bromwich and Tipton and Wednesbury, the swing to Labour is so great that the Reform vote would be unlikely to change the result.

The Conservatives may take some comfort that they still retain small leads of about two per cent in Dudley and Stourbridge – although in reality, the margin of error makes them too close to call.

Valerie Vaz will be back in Parliament, representing Walsall and Bloxwich, if the polls are correct

The polling suggests a very poor showing by the Liberal Democrats in the area, uniformly coming in fifth place, behind Reform and the Greens. This would appear to indicate a high degree of tactical voting in the area.

The study needs to be treated with a degree of caution, though. By using projecting national polling data onto individual seats, it does not take into account the effect of individual candidates, or indeed campaigning on the ground.

This may work in the Conservatives' favour, come polling day. The data makes little provision for independents, many of whom are left-leaning candidates with strong personal followings. These are more likely to take votes away from Labour, as demonstrated in the West Midlands mayoral election, where independent Akhmed Yakoob stood on a Palestinian protest platform. Similarly, it is probable that George Galloway's Workers Party will take votes from Labour in specific seats, something not reflected in the data.

Candidates polling less than one per cent of the vote are excluded.

Aldridge Brownhills – Con hold

Wendy Morton (Con) 45.72 per cent; Luke Davies (Lab) 34.465; Graham Eardley (Reform), 11.49. Joe Belcher (Green), 4.58; Ian Garrett (Lib D), 3.76;

Bromsgrove – Con hold

Bradley Thomas (Con), 42.03; Neena Gill (Lab), 31.04; Glen Brampton (Ref), 10.91; David Nicholl (Lib D), 10.14, Talia Ellis,(Green), 5.87;

Cannock Chase – Con hold

Amanda Milling (Con), 45.9; Josh Newbury (Lab), 34.79, Paul Allen (Ref) 10.73; Andrea Muckley (Green), 8.58;

Dudley – Con hold

Marco Longhi (Con), 42.41; Sonia Kumar (Lab), 40.38; Andrew Southall (Ref), 10.91; Zia Qari (Green), 4.71; Ian Flynn (Lib D), 1.58;

Halesowen – Lab gain

Alex Ballinger (Lab), 41.74, James Morris (Con), 39.68; Jonathan Oakton (Ref), 11.05; Emma Bullard (Green), 4.94; Ryan Priest (Lib D), 2.6;

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire – Con hold

Mike Wood (Con), 48.95; Sally Benton (Lab), 30.78; Gary Dale (Ref), 10.91; Claire McIlvenna (Green), 5.78; Gully Bansai (Lib D), 3.58;

Lichfield – Con hold

Sir Michael Fabricant (Con), 43.43; Dave Robertson (Lab), 31.42; Richard Howard (Ref), 11.05; Paul Ray (Lib D), 8.23; Heather McNeillis (Green), 5.87;

Smethwick – Lab hold

Gurinder Josan (Lab), 66.25; Pete Durnell (Reform), 16.52; Kate Fairhurst (Con), 9.89; Rod Macrone (Green), 5.01; Oliver Patrick (Lib D), 2.33;

Stafford – Con hold (too close to call)

Theo Clarke (Con), 38.79; Leigh Ingham (Lab), 38.46; Michael Riley (Ref), 10.91; Scott Spencer (Green), 6.98; Peter Andras (Lib D), 4.86;

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge – Con hold

Sir Gavin Williamson (Con), 45.04; Jacqueline Brown (Lab) 32.43; Tom Wellings (Reform), 10.91; Danni Braine (Green), 6.66 per cent; Sam Harper-Wallis (Lib D), 4.96;

Tipton and Wednesbury – Lab gain

Antonia Bance (Lab), 50.42; Shaun Bailey (Con), 28.12; Jack Sabharwal (Ref), 15.84; Mark Redding (Green), 4.51; Mark Rochell (Lib D), 1.1;

Walsall and Bloxwich – Lab gain

Valerie Vaz (Lab), 49.25; Shannon Lloyd (Con), 32.04; Elaine Williams (Ref), 12.75; Sadat Hussain (Green), 4.27; Patrick Stillman (Lib D), 1.68;

West Bromwich (Lab gain)

Sarah Coombes (Lab), 50.02; Will Goodhand (Con), 29.09; Ray Nock (Ref), 14.74; Gita Josh (Green), 4.55; Parmjit Singh Gill (Lib D), 1.59;

Wolverhampton North East – Lab gain

Sureena Brackenbridge (Lab), 47.24 per cent; Jane Stevenson (Con), 33.83; Paul Williams (Ref), 13.83; Kwaku Tano-Yeboah (Green), 4.4; Peter Thornton (Lib D), 1.07;

Wolverhampton South East – Lab hold

Pat McFadden (Lab), 53.97; Victoria Wilson (Con), 24.91; Carl Hardwick (Ref), 15.47; Paul Darke (Green), 4.24; Bart Ricketts (Lib D), 1.41;

Wolverhampton West – Lab gain

Warrinder Juss (Lab), 52.03; Mike Newton (Con), 27.5; Donald Brookes (Ref), 13.8; Andrea Cantrill (Green), 3.08; Philip Howells (Lib D), 2.59;

Wyre Forest – Con hold

Mark Garnier (Con), 43.73; (Lab) 32.96; Donald Brookes (Ref), 10.91; Andrea Cantrill (Green), 6.45; Philip Howells (Lib D), 5.95.