Small dip in unemployment in West Midlands as vacancies tumble nationally

Rates of unemployment in the West Midlands have fallen slightly while the UK tally has dropped to its lowest level since last summer as inactivity in the jobs market increases, official figures have shown.

Monthly job stats for the region published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also show a slight decrease in the rate of employment and a rise in inactivity.

For the three months from December to February 2026, the percentage of people aged 16 or over who were unemployed was 5.5 per cent, a decrease of 0.3 compared with the period from September to November.

A total of 73.4 per cent of 16 to 64 year olds in the West Midlands were in work, a drop of 0.3 per cent compared with the same quarter. The inactivity rate among 16 to 64 year olds was 22.1 per cent, an increase of 0.7 per cent over the same three months.

Emily Stubbs, head of policy at Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, said: "April's labour market figures continue to underline the fragility of the labour market in the West Midlands.

"While regional unemployment has edged down slightly over the last three months, it remains above that seen a year ago, as employment can be seen drifting in the wrong direction and vacancies continue to fall, signalling that many employers remain cautious about hiring and investment.

"Against a backdrop of sustained cost pressures and heightened global uncertainty, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, businesses are telling us they need greater stability and clarity to plan for growth.

"Policy must focus on backing employer confidence - through proportionate regulation, targeted action on skills and inactivity and measures that ease pressure on operating costs."

Nationally, the UK unemployment rate has fallen unexpectedly to its lowest level since last summer as inactivity in the jobs market increases and vacancies tumble.

The ONS data said the rate of UK unemployment dropped sharply to 4.9 per cent in the three months to February, down from 5.2 per cent in the three months to January and lowest since August last year.

Most economists had expected the jobless rate to remain unchanged. The ONS said the fall was driven by a rise in inactivity, especially among students, which lifted by 70,000 in the quarter.

The figures also showed average regular wage growth dropped further to 3.6 per cent in the three months to February, down from 3.8 per cent in the previous three months, and remaining at the lowest level since November 2020.

Earnings are still outstripping inflation, rising by 0.4 per cent with the Consumer Prices Index taken into account, but this is the lowest real growth for more than two-and-a-half years.

Vacancies also plunged by 29,000 in the three months to 711,000 - now the lowest level since April 2021.

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Liz McKeown, ONS director of economic statistics, said: "Alongside falling unemployment, the number of people not actively seeking work increased, with data suggesting fewer students seeking work alongside their studies. Regular wage growth has slowed further with growth at its lowest rate in over five years."

While the jobless rate fell, the ONS warned the figures should be treated with caution given an overhaul to the way the figures are collected.

More timely data estimated the number of workers on UK payrolls dropped 11,000 month-on-month in March to 30.3 million, though this is subject to revision.

This follows a revised 6,000 drop during February, against the 20,000 increase previously estimated.

The data comes amid fears of a spike in unemployment as the Iran war takes its toll on the UK economy, with the Item Club forecasting the jobless rate will surge to 5.8 per cent by the middle of 2027, with almost 250,000 more people without a job.

Pat McFadden, work and pensions secretary and MP for Wolverhampton South East, said: "We cannot escape the effects of the war in the Middle East which are likely to feed through to prices and employment in the coming months. We will do everything we can to support the country through this period."

But the Conservatives took aim at the rise in inactivity and recent wage tax hikes.

Shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately said: "This month's dip in unemployment is outweighed by the rise in people who are economically inactive who have left the labour market altogether."