Will there be a September heatwave? Full forecast for West Midlands, Staffordshire and Shropshire

After a summer of record-breaking heat, many people across the West Midlands, Staffordshire and Shropshire will be wondering whether September will finally bring some relief — or whether another heatwave could be on the way.

The UK has experienced an exceptional summer in 2026, with two heatwaves recorded in August alone. The month brought the fifth and sixth heatwaves of the year, while temperatures repeatedly climbed into the 30s.

September officially marks the beginning of meteorological autumn, but that does not necessarily mean an immediate end to the warm weather.

So, what can people across Staffordshire, Shropshire and the wider West Midlands expect as September begins?

A record-breaking summer

The summer of 2026 is already one for the record books.

This year became the first on record in which temperatures reached the 37C threshold on three separate days. Before 2026, temperatures had crossed 37C in the UK on only six occasions.

The heat has not been restricted to one particular month either. From May through August, the UK recorded at least one day when temperatures exceeded 35C.

July was also the driest month on record, while by July 15 the UK had already experienced more days above 30C than during the whole of 1976 — a year remembered for its exceptionally long heatwave.

The Met Office has previously warned that climate change is contributing to higher maximum temperatures and longer periods of warm weather across the UK. Without significant reductions in carbon emissions, temperatures of 40C could become increasingly likely in the years ahead.

With that background, it is understandable that another spell of intense heat is a concern as autumn approaches.

Will September bring another heatwave?

The latest long-range outlook does not currently point to a prolonged September heatwave across the West Midlands.

Instead, the overall picture is for changeable and unsettled conditions, with showers and longer spells of rain likely at times.

Temperatures are expected to remain broadly around average for the time of year. However, that does not mean September will be completely free of summer-like weather.

The Met Office says that short-lived warm or very warm spells remain possible, particularly across southern parts of the UK.

For Staffordshire, Shropshire and the West Midlands, that means residents could still see some notably warm days — but the current forecast does not suggest a repeat of the prolonged and exceptional heat experienced earlier this summer.

What about Staffordshire and Shropshire?

The first part of September is expected to be particularly unsettled.

Between Friday, September 4 and Sunday, September 13, most areas are likely to see showers or longer spells of rain at times. Northern and western areas are expected to see more of the wet weather, while the southeast could enjoy some longer dry spells.

That pattern could bring a noticeable change for Staffordshire and Shropshire following the hot and exceptionally dry conditions experienced during the summer.

There is also the possibility of strong and gusty winds at times, with northwestern areas more exposed to the strongest winds.

Temperatures during this period are expected to remain near average, although brief warm or very warm spells cannot be ruled out.

For the West Midlands, therefore, the early September outlook looks more like a mixed start to autumn than an extension of summer.

Could temperatures rise again later in September?

There is considerably more uncertainty in the forecast from the middle of September onwards.

The Met Office says signals become limited from around September 14, meaning confidence in the longer-range forecast decreases.

Initially, changeable conditions are expected to continue, with wetter weather more likely in the northwest and longer dry spells possible towards the southeast.

However, there could be an increasing chance of more prolonged settled and dry periods later in the month.

Temperatures are expected to vary around the seasonal average, although some warm spells are still likely, particularly in southern areas.

That means a late burst of warmth remains possible, but there is currently no strong indication of a major heatwave developing across Staffordshire, Shropshire or the West Midlands.

Rain could be the biggest change

For residents who have endured weeks of hot and dry conditions, the prospect of September rain may be more significant than another spell of heat.

The current outlook suggests rainfall could be above average across many parts of the UK during the month, with the wettest conditions expected in northwestern areas.

That would represent a major shift from the exceptionally dry conditions seen earlier in the summer.

The Met Office's September outlook describes a month likely to remain unsettled, with showers and longer spells of rain affecting all areas at times.

There may still be drier and more settled interludes, and these could become longer later in September, particularly across southern areas.

A heatwave is possible — but far from certain

It is too early to completely rule out another heatwave.

Long-range forecasts become increasingly uncertain the further ahead they look, and September can still deliver very warm weather in the UK.

However, the current forecast provides no clear signal of another prolonged heatwave across the West Midlands, Staffordshire or Shropshire.

Instead, the most likely scenario is a changeable month, with periods of rain and showers mixed with drier spells. Temperatures should generally remain close to seasonal averages, although brief warm or very warm conditions could develop.

For people across Staffordshire and Shropshire, that means September is currently shaping up to be considerably less extreme than the summer months.

After one of the hottest and driest summers on record, the arrival of wetter and more unsettled weather could finally provide the break many people have been waiting for.

But with warm spells still possible — particularly later in the month — summer may not disappear completely just because meteorological autumn has arrived.