Wolves blog: Mind the gap
If the teams below us continue to drop points, it certainly will be getting bigger every day...writes Wolves blogger Tom Tracey.
A win against Preston this weekend could see Wolves open up a 15-point gap on second place Aston Villa, who have a tough away fixture at Fulham.
Derby lost 2-0 at Sheffield Wednesday in a midweek fixture and sit in third place 13 points behind Wolves – having played a game more.
Cardiff, who are on the same points as Derby having played a game less, face Middlesbrough at home.
With a third of the season and 15 matches to go for most teams, games will soon begin to run out for teams below Wolves.
I decided to crunch a few numbers to see when Wolves might be able to achieve promotion.
Wolves have averaged 2.29 points per game (PPG) so far this season – if they were to carry on in the same vein, they should hit 105 points.
Villa’s 1.9 PPG would be enough for 88 points, while Cardiff are on course for 86 – Derby’s loss in their last game has left them on track for 83.
Barring a drastic drop in form for Wolves and an upturn for the chasers, five or six wins could be enough to see Wolves clinch promotion.
Villa still have to play Fulham, Preston, Derby and Cardiff as well as us – and Derby face that same group of teams.
Cardiff also face Bristol City and Sheffield United – and also still have us to play.
Fulham have a tough consecutive run of games, with Villa, Bristol City, Wolves, Derby, Sheffield United and Preston to face – their promotion credentials will be put to the test in the coming weeks.
For Wolves, an 18-point haul from the next nine games is probably a reserved estimate – which would leave Wolves with 89 points from 40 played.
Alternatively, if they remain on their season-long course, they would gain three more than that and hit 92 points.
Aston Villa would have to win every game of the next ten matches to catch the lower total – but their total based on their average PPG for the next nine games would be 17, putting them on 76.
If Cardiff stay their course, they will be on 75 points with six games to go – meaning Wolves, who would be 14 points ahead with 89, would be left needing just four points to guarantee promotion.
The next game after that would be against Cardiff though – meaning a win in that ‘six-pointer’ would be enough to clinch promotion.
In 2005/06, when Reading managed 106 points, they were promoted on March 25, in their 40th game – and won the league the following match on April 1.
Leicester, who hit 102 points in 2014, were promoted at the same stage.
Newcastle, who reached the same total in 2010, took an extra game to achieve promotion with five games to spare.
Whilst there is no doubt Nuno will not allow his team to think in this manner, it’s alright for us fans to speculate – so my money is on promotion at Cardiff on April 7.
