Chris Marsh on Walsall's safety odds

History, the books tell us, isn't on Walsall's side.

In the last nine seasons just one team has survived having been bottom of League One on New Year's Day.

Many have tried and failed, Stockport twice, but only Northampton in 2001-02 have managed to beat the drop.

It's a feat the Saddlers are hoping to emulate having been rooted to the foot following the 3-0 home defeat by Notts County on January 1.

It was the nature of the defeat, not the 4-1 loss at Peterborough two days later, which signalled the end for boss Chris Hutchings and triggered the appointment of manager Dean Smith.

The manager, along with Chris Nicholl and Jon Whitney, has been the catalyst for a stunning revival which has left Walsall on the brink of emulating Northampton.

And part of that Cobblers team who pulled off their own Great Escape was Walsall legend Chris Marsh, who made 43 appearances for Northampton between 2001 and 2003.

Northampton had just 17 points on New Year's Day in 2002 - the same amount as the Saddlers had at the start of 2011 - but claimed a further 32 to beat the drop by five points.

They finished fifth bottom on 49 points winning nine of their last 21 games but it's an achievement Marsh, who played 479 times for the Saddlers, rates highly.

He said: "To come back from having just 17 points at New Year was fantastic. Off the field at Northampton we had a lot of problems which made it difficult.

"We had four managers, which was a nightmare - four managers, four different systems.

"But we always had that belief and that's what Walsall need now."

With four games left, the Saddlers sit in that coveted final safety spot ahead - of Notts County's game in hand at Tranmere tonight.

They have won six of their 21 games under Smith, drawing eight and losing seven, to make up the five-point gap which stood between them and the safety line on January 1.

While Swindon's and Plymouth's safety bid is failing, two spots in the drop zone must be filled by County, Bristol Rovers, Walsall or Dagenham. Tranmere, on 49 points, could all but confirm their safety tonight with a win meaning a four-way race for survival.

Marsh reckons it won't necessarily be the best team who survives.

He said: "You can do all the preparation in the world but if you haven't got heart or spirit you've got nothing. You've got to fight for your team-mates. Walsall have to show that otherwise it doesn't matter what they do.

"When we got promoted under Ray Graydon in 1999, Manchester City and most of the other teams were better than us but our spirit got us through.

"There are four games to go and none of them will be easy. But they can't have any regrets.

"They've got to this stage so if they give it their best shot you can't ask any more."

The Easter double header at home to Sheffield Wednesday and Monday's trip to Oldham takes greater significance knowing Dagenham & Redbridge host Plymouth and Notts County go to Swindon.

It's easier said than done to suggest the weekend could be when Walsall grabbed safety by the scruff of the neck but it's possible.

Nine years ago Northampton survived by winning two of their last five games.

They were given little chance after their start to the season - much like Walsall now - but beat the odds.

But Marsh has lived it and, with Walsall so close, he appreciates what it takes to survive.

He said: "It would be an unbelievable achievement and testament to Dean.

"He deserves the freedom of Walsall if he does it."

By Nick Mashiter