Analysis: Aston Villa facing another big transfer window after completing their Great Escape

Written off as relegated when they sat seven points adrift barely a fortnight ago, Villa took eight from their final four matches to stave off the drop and completely alter the outlook for the club, Smith and his players.

Safety was secured in nail-biting fashion, courtesy of a 1-1 draw at West Ham, the point enough to make Bournemouth’s brave 3-1 win at Everton irrelevant, with Watford beaten 3-2 at Arsenal.

Fittingly, the goal which secured Villa’s survival was scored by Jack Grealish, the skipper thumping home his eighth of the season but first since January with six minutes remaining.

About a minute later Grealish got the final touch, unintentionally and unluckily, at the other end, as Andriy Yarmolenko’s shot deflected off his boot and over Pepe Reina to ensure the final minutes of Villa’s season were as tense as possible.

Indeed, the celebrations could not begin until about two minutes after the final whistle when Villa’s players and staff, gathered together on the pitch, received news of Watford’s result.

The image summed up the solidarity of a team put together in the space of 10 frenzied weeks last summer but which has only grown together and begun producing in the last few.

Almost all of the credit for this most unexpected of turnarounds must go to Smith, who held his nerve as the pressure ramped up and never lost belief when others might have done.

On a personal level, the coronavirus pandemic was tremendously painful for Villa’s head coach, who lost his father Ron in May. The outcome of football matches, no matter how much might be at stake, will never be anything other than trivial in comparison.

Professionally, however, there can be no denying the league’s suspension worked in his favour. When Villa were thumped 4-0 at Leicester on March 9, Smith wore the look of a man running out of ideas and time to turn things around.

The subsequent three-month break provided him the latter and he returned both refocused and re-energised, with a clear idea of what was going to be required if Villa were to escape trouble.

His work strengthening the team as a defensive unit ultimately paid dividends, with Villa able to find enough of a goal threat to just about get over the line.

Cutting it so fine was certainly not the plan last summer and Smith has unquestionably made mistakes. But over the course of the campaign he has grown into the role of Premier League manager and right now it is impossible to think of anyone else leading the club.

It is also true Villa suffered their share of misfortune, with injuries to John McGinn, Tom Heaton and Wesley coming at vital stages of the season.

At least McGinn was back for the final 10 matches, the Scot gradually improving game-by-game to play a key role in the final, crucial four matches.

The January signing of Pepe Reina, to replace Heaton, also eventually proved a shrewd move. At 37, the Spaniard is not perhaps as agile as in his heyday. There were certainly question marks over his reaction to Yarmolenko’s deflected effort yesterday. But Reina has undoubtedly brought some much-needed experience and leadership since replacing Orjan Nyland in goal with six matches remaining.

That said, the joy of survival should not disguise the faults with Villa’s recruitment over the past two windows. Less certain is the future of sporting director Jesus Garcia Pitarch, who will also be at today’s meeting.

The bulk of Villa’s post-season review is expected to focus on recruitment and scouting and the £140m spend over the past two transfer windows will clearly be under the spotlight.

The post-lockdown flowering of Douglas Luiz and the vital contributions of Trezeguet should not mask the fact that, by and large, Villa have so far got rather little in return for their investment.

Pitarch does not shoulder all of the blame. Purslow and Smith were also involved in developing the club’s strategy, the latter giving the green light to every signing. The scale of the task, in large part caused by the failings of the club’s previous ownership, also cannot be ignored and provides little mitigation.

Yet the bottom line is Villa can’t continue to recruit with such varied returns. The summer window now offers the club the chance to focus on quality rather than quantity. Villa must quickly decide whether Pitarch is the man who can source the four or five signings of the standard required to take the club to the next rung of the Premier League ladder.

The initial focus of Villa’s transfer dealings will be on Grealish. Perhaps the pandemic has helped Villa there too.

Back in February, there seemed little question the 24-year-old would leave his boyhood club whichever division they were playing in next season. Now, there is at least a little doubt.

With finances now far tighter than they might have been for most clubs, any suitor is going to need to meet Villa’s asking price. The club’s billionaire owners have proven before they are no pushovers.

Villa’s undisputed player of the season, it just had to be Grealish who got the goal which sealed survival. West Ham goalkeeper Lukas Fabianksi should probably have saved the 84th minute shot but it was hit with enough venom to beat his parry.

Villa celebrated wildly, the entire team running the technical area. Moments later they were forced to switch on again when Yarmolenko’s shot clipped Grealish’s boot, flew high in the air and down over Reina and into the net.

The final minutes, in truth, contained little alarm. Villa saw the match out with a maturity they simply never possessed during the first three-quarters of the season. The final whistle brought little celebration before news of Watford’s defeat brought it in waves. There will doubtless have been a few sore heads on Monday morning.

The coming days provide a little time for reflection but not much. Next season is already on the horizon. The celebrations will not last long, Villa still have plenty of work to do.