Villa blog: Can the FA Cup bring a change of fortune?

Where now Aston Villa?

With Adama Traore out for a reported ten weeks, Villa's season seems to lurch from crisis to crisis. Whether relating to the loss of Jordan Amavi - a player who looked like a star in the making - or the lack of a proven goal threat, the Midlands club are consistently labouring under a banner of "not good enough".

To be candid, Villa's season is arguably over already, lying seven points from 19th and a full 11 points from safety. The talk is that a win against Wycombe Wanderers will be a chance to kick on and start a run, but honesty implies that this is banana skin waiting to happen.

Winning against Wycombe, whilst a positive, is little more than is expected for a Premier League side, no matter how poor their form. Losing, on the other hand, is yet another story for the media to seize upon, lamenting the fall of what was once a great club.

Let's not be too dramatic though. Whatever happens come May, whether an expected relegation or some miracle escape, Villa will continue on as an entity. Fans will still be there, and Villa will play games in a league - whichever one that ends up being, whether Premier League or Championship.

Whether current owner Randy Lerner is still in situ come May is debatable. The club lies on the open market, although few seem interested at the present £150m asking price. Considering the distinct possibility that Villa may be about to have their revenues slashed, it is far from surprising that buyers are displaying a reticence to pay out for an organisation that has displayed little, if any, ability to operate effectively.

Some will say that Villa's books have been put in good order after a period of heavy spending and, to a certain extent, they would be right, although the risk averse financial mentality displayed by Lerner in recent seasons has, somewhat ironically, exposed the club to a major risk of relegation.

The old adage "speculate to accumulate" appears lost on Lerner, and whilst few can doubt he is desperately seeking the exit, how the club operates in the interim is a major cause for concern.

Certainly his tenure will not be looked on with any fondness should the club go down, although Villa could use this is as a dramatic wake up call, whether they descend into the Championship or not.

How? The reality is now stark, and despite an illustrious history - much of which is captured in daguerrotypes rather than photos, never mind video - the past must be forgotten.

Look into the Championship and you'll find former winners of the European Cup, Nottingham Forest, who have failed to return to the top flight since their exit from the Premier League in Brian Clough's final season. In the same division, you'll also find former Premier League winners Blackburn Rovers - now managed by former Villa manager Paul Lambert - showing that even recent successes count for nothing when a club doesn't return immediately.

If Villa go down, arguably when rather than if, the challenge will be whether the club has the tenacity or the capability to bounce back immediately. Much has been made of Remi Garde's ability, and whilst he managed success at Lyon with youth, the link is relatively tenuous and the position far different than the one he faces at Villa. Can he bring the club up, assuming that he stays? That's up for debate.

Furthermore, can Lerner find a way to get back out of the Championship assuming his ownership continues post (possible) relegation? Parachute payments may give Villa a short term boost of cash not otherwise handed to Championship teams, but even that has finite duration. Should Villa fail to come back within the period they are entitled to parachute payments, they will find themselves amongst big clubs with no real advantage apart from wits and transfer market dealing. Would many fans suggest that recent evidence of skill to survive is inherent at the board? No. Me either.

The sad thing is that Lerner was always a well intentioned person, but fans will remember him as a bumbling individual who came, saw, and stumbled.

Villa's season isn't over yet but concerns are rising, not only for the club's unlikely survival, but for any evidence that the team can bounce back - either in individual games or from a potential relegation.

Time will tell.