Hopeless Villa must take a long-term view

The battle of the Premier League's bottom two pits together clubs who have spent the past five-or-so seasons putting their fans through the wringer in a seemingly never-ending battle against relegation.

"I can stand the pain but it's the hope that kills," is the familiar refrain of a Mackems-supporting friend, writes Matt Maher.

In that respect, Villa fans may be able to claim a small victory over their rivals, due to the fact all their hope appears to have been extinguished following Bank Holiday Monday's 2-0 defeat at Norwich.

It wasn't just that the loss left them 11 points adrift of safety, at the season's midway point.

No, far more damning was the performance, which lacked energy, application and most importantly belief. Villa already look a team which has given up the ghost.

Perhaps that should come as no surprise in a season which has been an unprecedented disaster almost from the moment it began.

Signing 13 new players, most of whom had no previous experience of the Premier League, was always going to be a gamble, though few could have predicted the extent to which it has backfired.

Yet, in a perverse way, the sheer desperation of Villa's predicament could actually be a positive in the long run, at least if managed correctly.

The absence of any March or April six-pointers will be better for the nerves for starters.

Like the worker on a temporary six-month contract, the club have time to prepare for the seemingly inevitable and get their affairs in order.

With half a season to play, that might seem defeatist. Manager Remi Garde, his players and the club's hierarchy are not likely to throw the towel in yet, at least not in public, and nor should they.

But it would also be foolish if they did not have at least one eye on next season as the games tick by and relegation looms ever larger.

Villa's demise has been so rapid that they may unwittingly shamble their way to an advantage unavailable to most clubs who drop out of the top flight.

The vast majority do not discover their fate until the final weeks but Villa are likely to know theirs well in advance and will have the time to plan accordingly.

There is a school of thought, likely to be repeated ad nauseum by those with glasses half full in the coming months, that a drop into the Championships might be exactly what the club needs to reorganise and regenerate after several years spent circling the Premier League plughole.

Such a view has numerous dangers. The Championship is no easy league and recent history shows a quick return to the top-flight is no simple task.

That said, few clubs dropping into it have the size or the spending power of Villa, who while perhaps missing out on the new Premier League TV deal, will still have the financial benefit from 23 years dining at English football's top table.

The biggest variable, of course, will be what happens to the playing staff.

Many supporters will not be sad to see the back of many from the current squad but a high turnover should not be taken for granted, particularly among a group which has performed so badly this term.

That, in turn, might be no bad thing. Villa's squad might on the surface not seem ideal for the second flight but Rudy Gestede, who has struggled in the Premier League, is a proven goalscorer in the Championship.

Joleon Lescott, meanwhile, whose lack of pace has been exposed at the top level, would also likely be a solid base on which to build from the back.

A complete overhaul, such as that advocated by Stan Collymore, is the natural reflex reaction to such a disastrous run yet, in reality, radical change is rarely the best option – as Villa have discovered after last summer's scatter-gun splurge.

Indeed, continuity has been the biggest factor lacking in B6 over recent years as the club have lurched from one quick-fix to the next, tossing away the blueprint at the first sign of trouble.

With that in mind, Remi Garde, should he not be too wearied and worn out by the long stretch of poor results, should be given the chance to rebuild the team and stay central to any long-term outlook.

That does not mean those responsible for last summer's dire recruitment drive should not be held to account.

Villa, in a haphazard manner, implemented the structure missing from the club since Martin O'Neill's departure in 2010. The intentions, as usual, were good and, in this case, the goal correct but there remain serious questions as to whether Paddy Reilly, the club's head of recruitment, or Hendrik Almstadt, the sporting director, are the best men for those positions.

There, in a nutshell, should be by far the biggest concern for supporters. Namely, will a board with a track record of making poor decisions ever start getting them right?

Those who long ago lost faith in reclusive owner Randy Lerner have begun to give up on chief executive Tom Fox too.

It is certainly they who deserve the most flak for the mess Villa now find themselves. The only consolation might arrive in the extra time to prepare for their fate.

In light of recent history, even that sounds optimistic but, hey, bottom at New Year with eight points on the board, you've got to at least have hope, haven't you?