Matt Maher: More reasons to be optimistic about Aston Villa's Champions League chances than not

Already once this season it has worked to spectacular effect.

Back in September, when from the outside it appeared Emery and Villa’s world was caving in, the atmosphere inside Bodymoor Heath was very different.

The result was one of the greatest runs of form in club history, which took Villa from the Premier League’s bottom three and into the title race.

It is why you are unlikely to find Emery panicking at the loss of momentum which has switched focus away from what is happening above them in the table, to what is occurring immediately below.

A disappointing home draw with Leeds, coupled with late wins for Liverpool and Manchester United, has heightened fears among what was already one of football’s more fatalistic fanbases their team is destined to be overcome in the race for Champions League football.

It’s true Villa’s position isn’t so comfortable as it was in early January, when their advantage over fifth-placed Chelsea was 11 points.

But while the gap has closed, there remain more reasons to be optimistic about their chances of securing Champions League football than not.

For one thing, the success of English clubs in Europe this season means a fifth-placed finish will almost certainly be enough for a spot in next season’s elite competition, providing all four clubs in the race a little more margin for error.

And while Villa’s form clearly isn’t at the level which saw them reel off 11 straight wins in all competitions through November and December, neither is it as bad as some of the more pessimistic observers would have you believe.

There is one area of the team, for instance, performing very well indeed. Since the start of 2026, Villa have the best defensive record in the Premier League, conceding just five goals in their last eight matches.

That, admittedly, has been tempered by an attack which has scored only eight times in those games, the fourth worst record in the division.

Yet it does not suggest a complete team in need of major surgery. Emery’s challenge is simply finding the formula to get the forward line firing again.

Then there is the subject of the pursuers. 

Speak to some Villa supporters and you would believe Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United represent an unstoppable force.

In United’s case, that may well prove true. The Red Devils have claimed 16 points from a possible 18 under interim boss Michael Carrick and are the form team of the division.

You can’t say the same, however, about Liverpool, who over the last seven matches have cut their deficit to Villa by just two points, a rate of progress which, were it to continue, would not see them catch Emery’s men by the finish line.

Neither are Chelsea convincing. Granted, the gap between the London club and Villa has reduced by almost half, from 11 points down to six, over the last seven matches.

But the last two league games in particular have raised questions about the mindset of Liam Rosenior’s side, with four points dropped from winning positions at home to Leeds and Burnley, with a sixth red card of the season thrown-in for good measure.

Villa, for all their lack of attacking rhythm, have gained three points in their last two games thanks to late goals against Brighton and Leeds.

With Emery’s men having won more points from losing positions - and lost fewer from winning positions - than any other team in the Premier League, they would appear to be have greater mental fortitude than Chelsea heading toward the final run-in.

The next week has the potential to be decisive. Villa travel to Wolves on Friday, with Chelsea going to Arsenal on Sunday before the two sides meet at Villa Park next Wednesday.

Two wins for Emery’s men would open up an almost unbridgeable gap with more than two months of the season still to play.

That, of course, is the best-case scenario. In the worst-case, Villa would finish next Wednesday night outside the top-five on goal difference.

On balance, you can still make a far stronger case for the former outcome than the latter, at a point of the year when you’d always rather be the chased than a chaser.