Met Office says increased risk of heatwaves this summer - when hot weather could return to the West Midlands

After the recent hot spell, a period of unsettled weather is forecast for the West Midlands.

The Met Office is forecasting a spell of persistent rain to spread across the region during Wednesday morning (June 3), followed by sunny spells and scattered showers in the afternoon. The forecaster predicts conditions will turn increasingly windy through the day. A maximum temperature of 19 °C is forecast.

Windy conditions are also forecast for the West Midlands on Thursday, along with blustery showers and a risk of thunder.

Showers are expected to be less frequent on Friday. A spell of rain and stronger winds could arrive on Saturday.

When warmer weather could return

The Met Office’s UK long-range weather forecast, covering June 7-16, says changeable conditions are expected early in this period, with showers or longer spells of rain and strong winds. The forecaster says higher pressure and more settled conditions may begin to become more prevalent, especially in the south, later in the period, with temperatures likely to be near normal overall.

BBC Weather’s Monthly Outlook says the most likely outcome in the second week of June (June 8-14) is for high pressure to build from the southwest and south and eventually to become established near to or over the UK.

BBC Weather wrote: “The first half of the week may stay unsettled with further rain or showers, but as high pressure builds it should push the main frontal boundary further north. As a result, drier than normal conditions should develop, at least across much of England and Wales.”

It continued: “After the middle of June, it looks like high pressure should often be present across the UK. This should promote warm conditions with temperatures above the early summer average in most areas and potentially well above on some days, particularly across England and Wales. It should also be drier than normal in most areas.”

Met Office three-month outlook

The Met Office issued its three-month outlook, covering June, July and August, on Monday (June 2).

The summary said the chance of a hot summer is higher than normal, bringing an increased risk of heatwaves and heat-related impacts. It also said the chances of a wet season are slightly higher than normal, however, near-average rainfall remains the most likely outcome.