Braced for a big surprise?

I WOULD not be surprised if we awoke a week from today to find Ed Miliband forming the next Government with a bunch of hungover gentlemen in kilts. I would not be surprised if David Cameron were cordially inviting the Lib Dems to re-invent the Coalition. I would not be surprised if Cameron won an outright majority. My ambition for this General election is very simple: not to be surprised.

BUT, believe me, millions will be horribly surprised. This is because we no longer live in an interconnected society, relying on two or three television channels. When Britain was like that, we had daily contact, whether we liked it or not, with opinions different from our own. Today, we have retreated into separate tribes. We mix, in the flesh and on social media, with people who share our views. We self-edit the news we want. We saw the result of such isolation during the Scottish referendum when Yes or No voters tended to mix only with those of the same view. When the No victory was announced, some Yessers genuinely believed the referendum had been rigged. How could they think otherwise when they had barely met a No voter during the entire campaign? Just because you haven't met a Tory for ages doesn't mean they're not out there.

ANYONE else puzzled about why Anis Abid Sardar is facing trial in an English court? The 38-year-old London taxi driver is accused of planting a bomb in Iraq in 2007 which killed a US sergeant. Tracked down by his fingerprints, Sardar is charged with murder and conspiracy. But this was war. Britain and the United States had invaded Iraq. Sardar and his comrades were fighting back. He was doing only what thousands of German soldiers and civilians did as the Allies invaded their fatherland in 1944-45 and I don't recall any of them being prosecuted. This trial has the whiff of victors' justice. And what if the long-awaited Chilcot Report rules that the Iraq invasion was illegal, what then? Apologies and compensation all round?

RESEARCHERS in Germany are investigating a link between gum disease and dementia. No surprises there, then. Oral hygiene, or the lack of it, has already been linked to diabetes, stroke and heart disease. The surprise is that, whatever the mouthwash companies may tell you, there is still no remedy for advanced gum disease. History will probably judge how many billions of dollars chucked at research into diabetes, stroke, heart disease and dementia would have been much better spent finding a cure for bleeding gums.

A NEW survey reveals that SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon has the highest approval rating of any UK politician. The lesson of history is that the most dangerous politicians are the popular ones. The healthiest reaction to anyone wearing a rosette is not a warm glow but a healthy, chilly dose of suspicion.

MEANWHILE, what has become of child grooming, psychopathic airline pilots, the collapse of Greece, the Ukraine or that war we are supposed to be fighting against Islamic State? One of the most irritating things about general elections is how they wipe other news – and far more interesting news – right off the agenda.

PS: I have done some checking and apparently our war against IS is still going on. It's just that the RAF is running short of bombs and is taking a bit of a breather. Odd sort of war.