Gibraltar row heralds rocky Brexit divorce

While the UK's road out of the EU was always likely to be a rocky one, few would have predicted that the future of Gibraltar would prompt such a squabble.

The tiny British overseas territory on the southern tip of Spain is rarely a political talking point these days, unless it involves Putin flexing his muscles by sending a few Russian submarines or fighter jets into its vicinity.

But that all changed after the EU’s draft Brexit negotiating guidelines appeared to hand Spain a veto over whether the final Brexit deal will apply to Gibraltar.

Lord Howard, a former Tory party leader and former Home Secretary, harked back to the Falklands, suggesting the Government should threaten the use of military force to protect the interests of Gibraltar as Brexit unfolds.

He said: "Thirty-five years ago this week, another woman prime minister sent a taskforce halfway across the world to defend the freedom of another small group of British people against another Spanish-speaking country, and I’m absolutely certain that our current prime minister will show the same resolve in standing by the people of Gibraltar."

Then Defence Secretary Michael Fallon entered the fray, warning that Britain was prepared to go 'all the way' to preserve Gibraltar’s sovereignty.

And just in case the reaction had not been angry enough, Rear Admiral Chris Parry, formerly a senior figure at the Ministry of Defence, said that Britain could 'cripple Spain in the medium term' if it wanted to, adding ominously that he was confident of America’s support if it tried.

As you would expect, such comments have been met with an apoplectic response in some quarters.

Jack Straw, who served as home secretary and foreign secretary in the Labour government, said Lord Howard's comments 'reeked of 19th century jingoism', while the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, suggested British ministers were 'losing their composure'.

Theresa May brought a cool head to proceedings, insisting that Britain's position on Gibraltar had not changed. "We want to negotiate the best possible deal for the UK and the best possible deal for Gibraltar," she said.

The reality is that the chances of Britain going to war with Spain over Gibraltar are slim to none.

For a start, declaring war on one of its Nato brothers would be near enough impossible. Then there's the impact that such a move would have on our negotiations with our old pals in the EU.

Sovereignty isn't really the issue at all. The threat to Gibraltar laid out in Jean-Claude Juncker's draft is that it could be excluded from a future UK-EU trade deal - an outcome that could pose a number of problems.

There is no doubt that Brexit will have widespread ramifications for Gibraltar, which voted by more than 96 per cent to stay in the EU.

Indeed, in the weeks after the referendum Gibraltar’s Chief Minister Fabian Picardo entered discussions with Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to draw up plans to remain part of the EU.

However, unlike Sturgeon, Gibraltarians want to keep UK sovereignty, no doubt minded of the fact that its economy's success is largely a result of its institutional separation from struggling Spain.

On the other side of the peseta, the Rock benefits from millions of tourists driving over the Spanish border every year, while workers from Spain also contribute to the economy.

If and when Gibraltar leaves the EU, there will be concerns that Spain could shut down the border.

The last time this happened in 1969 under the orders of General Franco, it took took 16 years for the border to reopen.

In essence, the questions over the future of Gibraltar provide a stark example of just how delicate and the Brexit negotiations will be.

The Prime Minister is best advised to adopt a measured approach as opposed to the chest-beating that is seemingly preferred by certain other individuals in her party.

Aside from its clear reliance on the UK, the Rock also holds significant strategic value, sitting on the main route between shipping lanes in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.

While talk of war may be faintly ridiculous, a tug-of-war is certainly not out of the question.

The last thing Britain needs is for Gibraltar to become a bargaining chip that is casually thrown onto the table by a resentful EU.

If the early signs are anything to go by, the Brexit divorce could be as tempestuous as Brad Pitt's split from Jennifer Aniston.

Over to you, Mrs May.