Conflict between China and Taiwan could grow to 'international level', West Midlands expert warns
The Chinese threat to Taiwan of impending military action could lead to both regional and international conflict, an expert in the West Midlands has said.
Dr Lily Hamourtziadou, from Birmingham City University, said recent events in Afghanistan had paved the way for China to assert more "influence and control".
It comes as tensions have been labelled the "worst in 40 years" by chiefs after China sent a number of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone over four days.
China and Taiwan were divided during a civil war in the 1940s and whilst Taiwan – the Republic of China – believes itself to be a sovereign state, the Government in Beijing see it as a breakaway – and has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve the unification.
Dr Hamourtziadou, a senior lecturer in criminology and security studies, said: "Early this year, China warned Taiwan that any attempt to seek independence would ‘mean war’. The warning came after China stepped up its military activities and flew warplanes near the island, which it regards as a breakaway province, rather than a sovereign state.
"In response, US President Biden reaffirmed his commitment to Taiwan, to which the US is selling weapons. Chinese defence ministry spokesman Wu Qian has defended the military activities, saying they were necessary to address the security situation in the Taiwan Strait and to safeguard China’s sovereignty and security.
"China’s actions can be understood in the context of the shifting positions in the global architecture of power that followed the end of the Cold War.
"The 21st century has seen major changes in world economy, namely a shift in its hegemonic structures - a shift away from North America and Western Europe and towards the emerging economies of Asia.
"The hegemonic position of the US has been undermined by the rise of China, which has had geopolitical implications, some of which we witnessed recently in the Middle East, as the US withdrew from Afghanistan and China formed an alliance with the Taliban."
The expert believes the US and UK military withdrawal – viewed as a "Western failure and defeat" provided an opportunity to China to emerge as a global power and expand its influence.
“China’s emergence as a global power means great power aspirations, a more assertive international stance and the opportunity of little-challenged military responses," Dr Hamourtziadou said.
"In our current world of power-shift, we seem to have entered a ‘Asian Century’, as the rise of China changes the balance of power not only in Asia, but globally, presenting challenges for the US and Western Europe, which now have to navigate their way around cooperation, containment or confrontation.
"China’s threats are likely to result in regional conflict, but also potentially major war between China, Taiwan and those states – the US and its allies – committed to protecting and defending Taiwan’s sovereignty, in the event of an invasion. Thus a regional conflict may grow to the international level of the long wars being fought in the War on Terror."
