Matt Maher: Why Ollie Watkins was always favourite to remain Unai Emery's main main at Aston Villa

Emery has been in football long enough to know things can quickly change and sure enough, they have. Instead of being at Villa Park for the next decade, Duran is heading out the door, off to the Saudi Pro League and Al-Nassr in a deal which could eventually be worth more than £70million.

The timing of the news, much like the rest of the Colombia international’s two-year stay, was dramatic, emerging just as Morgan Rogers put Villa 2-0 up against Celtic on Wednesday night.

Duran, his future having been thrashed out by the club’s transfer chiefs in the bowels of Villa Park in the build-up to kick-off, sat watching from the bench. At least when it came to on the pitch, it would be a quiet departure from the arena for a player whose winning goal against Bayern Munich had already confirmed his place in club folklore. 

Watkins, meanwhile, was right in the heart of the action, scoring and missing a penalty just hours after it emerged he had been the subject of a bid from Arsenal. 

For a short time prior to Duran’s proposed move becoming public, the debate which has raged for much of this season among supporters concerning the club’s two strikers should be starting was thrown right to the fore. 

Except this time, the question was not just who should be starting but who should remain. Watkins or Duran? Suddenly, Villa had a definitive decision to make yet in hindsight, it is no real surprise Watkins is the man who stays.

It wasn’t so long ago, hardly a month in fact, when Duran appeared to have put the argument - at least in terms of who should be starting matches - to bed. Three consecutive Premier League starts brought three goals, with a stunning strike against RB Leipzig thrown in for good measure. Duran’s performance in the 2-1 win over Manchester City was his most complete so far.

But then came Newcastle on Boxing Day, a controversial sending-off and three-match ban. More importantly, then came the January transfer window.

Speculation over Duran’s future was hardly anything new. A year ago, Villa were actively looking to move him out on loan but could find no takers. They were prepared to sell him to Chelsea or West Ham in the summer had either club met what was then a £40million asking price.

Duran’s explosive start to the season, which saw him net match-winners in three of the first four Premier League matches, suggested Villa had struck lucky. In one sense they had, as those moments rapidly increased the striker’s value. Yet while team-mate’s talked of Duran having improved his focus and while the club were prepared to give him a new, lengthy contract, internally there were always doubts.

One Villa insider once compared coaching Duran with taming a wild horse. Emery, who prides himself on organisation and structure was prepared to make concessions and show extra patience, fully aware of the player’s vast potential. But there is always a balance to be found and with Duran the nagging question always remained, how much can you trust him?

With Watkins, on that score there has never been any doubt. Ever since Emery walked through the doors of Villa Park in November 2022, the England international has been a dependable and often prolific source of goals.

Neither does he deliver only the latter. Watkins created more goals than any other player in the Premier League last season and recently became the fastest to reach 100 goal involvements in the top flight since Kevin De Bruyne.

Added further to that is his durability. While some strikers wilt under the pressure of carrying the load, Watkins relishes in it.

There are echoes here of two years ago, when in his first transfer window at Villa, Emery took the bold decision to sell Danny Ings leaving Watkins as his only recognised senior striker.

The latter went on to score 12 goals in his final 19 appearances of the season and was one of the major factors in Villa qualifying for the Europa Conference League. He followed it up by netting 28 times in all competitions as Emery’s men reached the Champions League last term.

Duran, for all those increasing moments of genius, simply does not have the same track record. Harsh as his dismissal at Newcastle might have been, it was intriguing to hear Emery remark on the player’s “reputation” in the aftermath. There was always an element of chaos around Duran and betting everything on him would have felt too much of a gamble.

That is not to say things might not have turned out differently had Arsenal made their move earlier in January. But their offer, closer to £45m than the £60m first reported, always smacked a little of desperation. By that stage, with Duran rapidly closing in on Saudi Arabia, Villa really didn’t have too much of a decision to make.

Watkins grew up an Arsenal supporter and while the idea of joining the Gunners might have appealed, he has never appeared the type of character to dwell on what might have been.

One suspects that, just as Ings’ departure two years ago spurred him on to greater heights, Duran’s exit might also help him find consistency which has at times been lacking this season.

While Watkins might have said he was enjoying the competition, when speaking after last month’s win at Everton, his eyes while answering the question told a rather different story.

Now, once more, there is no doubt he is Emery’s main man.