Analysis: Fulham defeat highlights short and long-term concerns for Aston Villa

Chances are Saturday’s defeat at Fulham will mean little in Villa’s quest for a top-five Premier League finish.

When you have the kind of cushion Unai Emery’s team holds in the race for Champions League football, you can afford a slip-up or two.

It is quite possible Villa already have enough points to seal the deal. Even with this 1-0 loss, they ended the weekend with the same eight-point advantage over sixth place as they began it.

Instead, the immediate concern was the loss of momentum heading into Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first leg at Nottingham Forest, the latest match to earn the billing as the biggest of the season so far.

Six days on from the near collapse at home to Sunderland, Villa barely got out of first gear as they slid to what felt an avoidable defeat in west London.

Forest, by contrast, are suddenly flying, scoring nine goals in their last two matches and able to lay reasonable claim to having recorded the shock result of the Premier League campaign to date with Friday’s 5-0 thrashing of Sunderland.

Still battling relegation they might be, yet it is Vitor Pereira’s men moving toward Thursday with their tails up.

Villa, after weeks of steady improvement, are just doing enough to make you doubt them again.

Victory on Saturday would have put a top-five finish almost beyond doubt and Emery had set things up by urging his team to forget what is happening beneath them in the table and target a third-placed finish, the club’s best since 1993.

Yet there wasn’t anything about this performance to suggest players are taking the latter goal particularly seriously. Rather than seize the initiative, Villa were guilty of giving a Fulham side which had failed to score in five of their last six matches and clearly lacking confidence in front of goal too much encouragement. Ryan Sessegnon’s goal just before half-time was enough to earn them a win which kept alive their own European ambitions.

Villa’s low intensity had echoes of February’s defeat at Wolves. The weather might have been in complete contrast to that rainy night at Molineux but just as then, there seemed a general reluctance to seize the initiative.

Emery, somewhat curiously, took less issue with the overall display than their finishing, claiming his side would probably have won the match had they been more clinical in front of goal.

There was certainly some truth in that. Morgan Rogers, Tammy Abraham and Ollie Watkins - twice - missed good chances.

As Emery observed, Watkins’ second opportunity on the hour mark was close to a carbon copy of one he received late on in the 1-1 league draw at Forest earlier in the month. Just as then, he seemed to snatch at it, sending his shot over the bar and into the stands. Abraham, meanwhile, did all the hard work with a lovely piece of skill to beat a defender but with just Bernd Leno to beat, sliced the finish horribly off target. With a little more composure, Villa could easily have taken at least a draw.

On the other hand, those chances were their only notable efforts on goal across 90 minutes where Leno was not forced into serious exertion.

Emery would vehemently insist otherwise but it was hard not to watch Villa on Saturday and see a team which had one mind on the European challenge to come.

The absence of Amadou Onana due to knee pain, admittedly, did not help, though Emery’s decision to take off John McGinn, comfortably Villa’s best player, with around a quarter-of-an-hour to go also hinted at mixed priorities.

Perhaps Emery hoped Jadon Sancho or Leon Bailey might be able to make-up for their recent errors with a moment to salvage a point? If so, it was wishful thinking. The final minutes only reinforced the importance of McGinn and Youri Tielemans, removed from the action at the same time, to the cause.

While the impact of Saturday’s defeat is likely to be minimal - Villa still require just one more win to virtually assure a top-five place - it also highlighted some long-term truths.

For all that returning to the Champions League will mark the greatest achievement of the Emery era to date, his team are rather falling over the line. This defeat means they have claimed just 16 points from the last 14 Premier League matches.

From this point, they will need to win all four remaining matches to better the points total which saw them claim fourth place two years ago. It will require three more wins to best last year’s tally which proved not quite enough.

Of course, there are 19 other teams in the division and the lower points total which will be needed for a top-five finish this term - and also winning the title - can in part be put down to a larger, more competitive mid-table pack.

Yet it may also be true Villa are not quite the team they were two or even one year ago. They are on course to triumph in their season’s primary aim and the plaudits heading their way will be fully deserved. Come the summer, however, fresh energy will be required. The approaching transfer window may just be the most critical yet.

Those conversations, for now, can wait. Villa are on to Forest and a match of far greater significance than the one which preceded it.