Analysis: Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins show why they cannot be written off

Just a few days after their surge toward the Premier League summit was knocked off course by a 4-1 thumping at Arsenal, Villa rebounded with a 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest which demonstrated why they cannot, quite yet, be counted out of the title race.

Watkins, meanwhile, scored for the fourth time in three matches to continue his own renaissance.

With fewer than 10 seconds remaining of a first half his team had dominated without carving out much in the way of clear-cut chances, the striker received a pass from Morgan Rogers, took a couple of touches and then rifled a shot into the roof of the net from just outside the box.

From that point on Villa never truly looked like letting slip a win which kept them just six points behind the Gunners and extinguished fears last Tuesday’s torrid second half at the Emirates had left any lasting scars.

Perhaps more significantly, in terms of Villa’s primary aim of securing European football for a fourth successive season, the win maintained a healthy cushion to a chasing pack who must now find the kind of consistent form which has so far eluded them, or hope for Emery’s team to stumble if they are to close the gap.

The odds on the latter are not particularly short. Ever since Emery arrived more than three years ago Villa have not been a team to suffer any prolonged loss of form. 

On only three occasions under the Spaniard have they lost back-to-back Premier League matches and at no point did there appear any danger of Saturday becoming the fourth. Instead, it was arguably their most complete performance over 90 minutes since the 4-0 hammering of Bournemouth which immediately followed their previous Premier League defeat at Liverpool in early November.

Add in form which has seen them win 11 straight at home for the first time since 1990 and 23 of the last 28 at Villa Park in all competitions and it becomes clear that while Arsenal and Manchester City might reasonably be considered slightly stronger at this point, Emery’s men are comfortably favourites to finish best of the rest.

You will fancy them even more if the past week proves the start of a prolonged resurgence for Watkins.

Among this season’s greatest curiosities has been Villa achieving such success despite rather paltry returns from the all-time Premier League top scorer.

In truth, 2025 as a calendar year was pretty rough for the England international, who began it fighting with Jhon Duran for a place in the starting XI and was then usurped by loanee Marcus Rashford for some of the biggest matches in the club’s history, before finding the net just once in the first three months of the current campaign.

Yet since coming off the bench to turn the match against Chelsea, Watkins has begun to look much more like the player who has ranked among the best forwards in the country over the past five seasons.

Granted, the last two-and-a-bit matches have not been perfect. There was a first half miss at Arsenal at the point when Villa were on top, while he really should have opened the scoring inside two minutes on Saturday when a Morgan Rogers block on Nico Williams’ clearance presented him the ball inside the six-yard box with just Forest keeper John Victor to beat.

But after so many games this term when he has left the field having made minimal impact, the fact chances are now once more coming his way with regularity is encouraging. Emery would ideally like to recruit another striker this month to help carry the load but Watkins looks like he will still have a major part to play.

While the 30-year-old got things rolling with the opener, Saturday was otherwise a demonstration of Villa’s midfield power.

John McGinn grabbed the headlines with his first goals since October and his first brace for the club since scoring twice in a 3-1 win away to Forest in March 2019 during the 10-match winning run which put Villa into the Championship play-offs and on course for promotion.

The stars of the show, meanwhile, could be found in the engine room. 

Boubacar Kamara delivered the kind of performance which made you ponder what might have been had he not been suspended for the midweek trip to the Emirates.

His iron-grip on midfield allowed Youri Tielemans to dictate the tempo. The latter’s vision, picking out Rogers when safer passes which would have brought the half-time whistle, was vital to Villa grasping the lead just before the break.

Tielemans then supplied McGinn’s second and Villa’s third of the afternoon, admittedly with a pretty big assist from John Victor, with a lofted through ball. By then the Belgium international had already displayed the rather under-rated, tougher side to his game with the challenge on Dilane Bakwa which won back possession in the build-up to Villa’s second.

It wasn’t the perfect afternoon. A Morgan Gibbs-White goal which briefly threatened to make things interesting means it is now eight matches since Villa kept a clean sheet. The limitations of a Forest team content to defend their own box for the first 45 minutes must also be taken into account.

Yet such is the challenge of getting a result at Villa Park these days, they won’t be the only visiting side to attempt such a tactic between now and May.

For Villa, this was another test of character passed. Next up is a trip to Crystal Palace and Selhurst Park, a venue where they have been beaten by an aggregate score of 12-2 on the last three visits. Rarely have they gone there with such confidence.