When will the late-September warmth end across the West Midlands and Shropshire?

A late September spell of unusually warm weather is bringing a taste of summer back to the West Midlands and Shropshire – but the sunshine will be short-lived, with rain and strong winds set to follow.

Temperatures have climbed well above what would normally be expected at the end of September, with the Met Office forecasting a maximum of 25C across parts of the West Midlands on Tuesday.

The warm conditions are being driven by southerly winds drawing warmer air northwards, with sunshine developing after a cloudy start in many places.

Across the region, temperatures have reached the low-to-mid 20s, with the latest Met Office figures putting Birmingham, Coventry and Solihull around 23C, Wolverhampton and Dudley around 22C and Worcester around 24C. Shrewsbury is also around 23C.

A noticeably warm end to September

The warmth is particularly striking because average daytime temperatures across England at this time of year are generally around the mid-to-high teens.

BBC Weather said temperatures across England on Tuesday could reach as high as 26C, with much of England seeing temperatures in the 20s – around 3C to 7C above the late-September average in some areas.

The hottest conditions are expected further south and east, but the West Midlands is also benefiting from the unusually warm air.

For people across Shropshire, the spell provides a brief reminder of summer before October arrives, with temperatures around the low 20s in the county.

But the warmth won't last

The Met Office says the change will be rapid.

Rain is expected to sweep across the West Midlands overnight into Wednesday, with brisk winds accompanying the system. Wednesday will begin wet before the rain clears, leaving brighter spells and the possibility of a few showers.

The national picture is similarly unsettled.

The Met Office says a cold front will move eastwards on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain in places, while strengthening winds will add to the autumnal feel.

Some western areas could see 20-30mm of rainfall, while gusts of more than 50mph are possible in exposed parts of the UK.

A changeable start to October

The latest forecast suggests the West Midlands should then see a more settled spell developing.

The Met Office forecast for the region points to largely dry conditions with sunny spells on Thursday, followed by rain on Friday and brighter weather returning on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to move closer to normal for the beginning of October.

Further ahead, the Met Office says high pressure is likely to influence much of central and southern Britain during the opening days of October, bringing opportunities for drier weather, although chilly nights and fog could become more noticeable.

The longer-range picture remains uncertain, however, with the Met Office warning that lower pressure could become more influential later in the period and that western areas may see more unsettled conditions.

For now, the message for the West Midlands and Shropshire is straightforward: make the most of the late-September warmth – autumn is waiting just behind it.