Covid-19 variant warning if lockdown eased 'too quickly'
Easing lockdown "too quickly" could lead to more Covid-19 variants and new surges in infection, an expert warned today.
Microbiologist Dr Arthur Hosie, of Staffordshire University, called for caution in light of the South African variant found in the Black Country and other areas in the UK.
His comments come as a West Midlands study, by Warwick University, warns us to expect another wave of the virus next winter.
Dr Hosie described the virus variant – responsible for almost 150 confirmed Covid-19 cases – as a "concern".
He warned easing current lockdown measures whilst cases were still high would lead to virus replication and could lead to new variants.
He said: "When it is clear a variant has entered a new region, such as the South Africa variant entering the UK, we need to do all we can to limit its spread within the population. This needs rapid testing, and incentives to isolate to prevent the spread.
"The Government response to the South Africa variant was too slow and limited and as a consequence, we have more than 147 known cases of this variant in the UK – this is a concern.
"We need to implement all public health measures to avoid these being transmitted and increasing and the current discussion about lockdown easing is concerning."
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the soonest restrictions could be eased is on March 8, but has promised a "route map" by the end of this month.
Containment
Dr Hosie said virus levels were falling, but were still far too high to relax measures. Levels in the West Midlands are currently the highest in the country.
He added: "There is still a lot of new cases daily in the UK. This is a lot of virus replication that gives opportunities to allow new variants to arise. In order to replicate, viruses need to be transmitted to new hosts.
"By using social distancing and other containment measures, we can decrease the case numbers and decrease the opportunities for change.
"The lockdown has brought the case numbers gradually lower. But at a rate that means that if they are eased in March too quickly, it is likely there will be a surge in case numbers and potentially a need for a further lockdown.
"To avoid this, it would be better to keep restrictions for longer, ideally until case numbers are below 1,000 in the UK, the lower the better. Then gradually we can ease restrictions."
Warwick University experts have studied the effects of the vaccine on transmission rates. They say the rate of roll-out of the jab is unlikely to be quick enough to prevent a new wave of the virus next winter, although those falling seriously ill are likely to be those who have not had the vaccine.
