Comment: West Brom board hedge their bets with managerial decision
When Darren Moore was sacked, it was because the board lost faith in his ability to deliver as ‘swift a return to the Premier League as possible.’
With that in mind, there are two questions relevant to their latest decision to give caretaker boss James Shan a chance to stake his claim for the rest of the season against Birmingham City.
Firstly, do Albion have a better chance of winning promotion under Shan, rather than Moore?
And secondly, do Albion have the ‘best’ chance of winning promotion under Shan, rather than anybody else available?
Let’s deal with the first question initially. Shan’s pragmatic style has yielded results in his first two games, even if Swansea could, and should, have beaten the Baggies in his opener.
The caretaker has done what many inside and outside the club were crying out for, and it’s delivered six points from a possible six.
He’s also made some inspired decisions. Chris Brunt was reinstated to the line-up and led Albion to victory over Swansea, scoring one and setting up another.
Shan gave Kyle Edwards his first league start for the club against Brentford, and the youngster ended up winning the match with a moment of brilliance.
The 40-year-old’s messages are clear, his instructions are being followed, and his 4-5-1 system seems to suit the squad.
He is a bright coach highly-regarded inside Albion headquarters, where the feeling seems to be ‘if it aint broke, don’t fix it.’
Under Moore, there were concerns behind the scenes at a No.2 having too much influence and a tactical approach that didn’t suit the players.
A worrying downward trend in his last three games looked like showing no signs of abating. Finishing in the play-off spots began to look in serious doubt.
Shan has delivered the first home win of 2019, and an impressive away win at an in-form side.
It’s fair to argue, under him, Albion do have a better chance of going up than under Moore.
But the second question is not so cut and dry. Would leaving Shan in charge until the end of the season – if that is indeed what happens – give Albion the ‘best’ chance of going up?
That is up for debate. With automatic promotion slipping away, there were understandable concerns Moore’s inexperience and in-game management may prove costly in the play-offs.
Even though Shan, a former under-23s manager, arguably has more dug-out experience than Moore, expecting him to deliver in the cut and thrust of the play-offs is equally worrying.
If he sees out the season, the Baggies need to appoint an experienced coach to help him through those games. But that is no guarantee of success.
As impressive as Shan has been so far, there is a strong argument Albion would be better served with a permanent head coach with experience of navigating such games.
That’s why Slavisa Jokanovic and Alex Neil – two managers who have taken teams up via the play-offs – were sought after.
The counter-argument is there is a risk involved in appointing a permanent boss now, one that endangers an upward curve so near to the end of the season.
Jokanovic’s methods take time to take hold – he only won two of his first eight games at both Watford and Fulham – and he likes to play a passing game that might not suit this current squad.
Neil, on the other hand, is unavailable after taking Preston North End into the play-off race.
There are other options of course, but any new manager both needs and deserves time for his ideas to bed in. Time Albion simply don’t have this season.
The timing of Darren Moore’s sacking and the uncertain nature of which division Albion will be in next season made this a tricky appointment. Shan’s two victories made it even trickier.
Is Shan the ‘best’ man to deliver promotion this season? Arguably not. But he won’t need time to get up to speed with this squad.
The people who made this decision – technical director Luke Dowling and chief executive Mark Jenkins – are based at the training ground full-time.
They will have seen Shan in action, seen the mood among the players. And if he hadn't won those two games, this wouldn't be an option.
However, there should be concerns about the ramification of this decision and the atmosphere it creates at The Hawthorns on Friday.
A new boss would naturally be given time by the fanbase, a period of grace. If he didn’t win his first game, it could be put down to teething issues.
Particularly with that ten-point cushion to seventh place built up by Shan in the past two games.
Fans voted with their feet after Moore’s sacking, the official attendance was just over 20,000.
The midweek tie and the weather may have played a part, but there were still larger swathes of empty seats than you would expect for a team in fourth.
What will the atmosphere be like at The Hawthorns against Blues? It puts a lot of pressure on the performance, and a lot of undue pressure on Shan.
He won’t mind, he’s made of stern stuff, and the ire – if it comes – will not be directed at him. But you can’t help feel this decision increases pressure on the team.
The reason it hasn’t gone down well among the fanbase is because it feels like déjà vu. Why replace Moore with Shan, just another coach promoted from the academy?
But Shan is not Moore mk II, he’s proven that both on and off the pitch in the past two weeks. And he won't be considered for the permanent job, even if he does take Albion up.
Pinning so much on one game also feels dangerous; what if the team have a collective off-day? What if Birmingham do?
But there is a case the Blues match will give the board a better gauge of Shan's abilities because he’ll have had two weeks to prepare.
We will see more of James Shan's Albion next Friday than we did in the first two games.
Another reason this is a gamble is, if it doesn’t work out, a new manager will then be appointed even closer to the end of the season, even closer to the play-offs.
Albion shouldn’t have any trouble finding a head coach, it is still an attractive job.
The best case scenario is the Baggies are in the Premier League next season, the worst case scenario is a rebuilding project to fight for promotion in the Championship.
No doubt there is a head coach out there who could come in and have an immediate impact capable of taking Albion up.
Provided the board are making contingency plans if it doesn’t work out with Shan, and sounding out short-term specialists, there is an element of logic to sticking with him for the time being.
Particularly with the players taking to him, particularly with so few games left.
Perhaps he can get a tune out of this squad during the run-in faster than anyone else. Perhaps he can emulate Moore's turnaround towards the end of last season.
But even if this is a calculated gamble, it is still a gamble, and it leaves the board open to criticism if it doesn't work.
Although it was emotionally difficult to part ways with Moore, sacking a manager is the easy part, replacing him is the difficult bit.
At the moment, Albion are hedging their bets. Whether that's a sensible or dangerous approach so close to the end of the season remains to be seen.
