Express & Star

Matt Maher: Aston Villa are on the up – but now it gets tricky

Recent weeks have largely been frustrating for Villa, as a season which once promised to deliver something special has lost momentum at the critical stage.

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The bigger picture, of course, remains overwhelmingly positive and the considerable progress of Dean Smith’s team undeniable.

However disappointing it has been for supporters to see their team’s European hopes fade, the situation remains preferable to a year ago when they stood on the brink of relegation.

Villa’s bold ambitions provide cause for excitement too. Though billionaire owners Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens have kept public comment down to a minimum since rescuing the club from the brink of administration less than three years ago, boss Dean Smith made the aim clear earlier this month when voicing his anger at plans for a European Super League.

“My dream is to break into the Champions League places and challenge again with Villa,” he said. It was a comment which probably raised eyebrows outside the Midlands and doubtless a few snorts of derision from elsewhere in the region.

Yet the publication of Villa’s most recent set of accounts last week provided further confirmation the club really aren’t kidding when it comes to their long-term goal.

On the flip side, the figures also highlighted some of the challenges which must be overcome if they are to reach it. Impressive though their progress has been so far, they are already approaching the point where it gets tricky. Getting within sight of the top six is one thing but actually breaking into the elite is quite another. Villa only need to look at what has happened at Wolves this season to understand it can be far easier to fall backwards than push on.

Since taking the reins at Villa Park in July 2018, Sawiris and Edens have invested close to £400million and counting and made the club effectively debt-free after repaying old loans and converting debt into equity.

The accounts, meanwhile, reveal a total of £262m has been splashed out on players since winning promotion to the Premier League in 2019, expenditure which so far has allowed Villa to consolidate back in the top flight.

Yet while they might rank among English football’s biggest spenders over the last four transfer windows, a quick glance at their revenue streams compared to the “big six” demonstrates the extent to which they and the rest of the division are playing catch-up.

Were it not for the pandemic costing an estimated £36.1m (in a total operating loss of £99.2m), Villa’s turnover for the 2019-20 season would have been a club record. It would still have been a relative drop in the ocean, however, compared to the £509m posted by Manchester United.

Assessing the off-field income of clubs like Villa compared to the Premier League elite is where the gaps really begin to show. Despite a “record-breaking” sponsorship deal with W88, Villa’s commercial revenue of £21m pales in comparison to the £142m generated by Arsenal, the lowest figure posted by any of the “big six” clubs. Manchester United’s commercial income for the year totalled £279m.

Boosting those revenue streams is obviously part of the long-term plan and Sawiris and Edens have recognised that cannot happen without first building the brand on the pitch.

Neither can it happen overnight. Just ask Wolves and Fosun. Their recent statement condemning the ESL spoke of a “meticulous, long-term plan” and it would be fair to say the club’s ownership have come to accept cracking the elite will be a lengthier task than they might first have hoped after qualifying for Europe in their first season back in the Premier League.

While many supporters might view this summer’s transfer window as an indication of ambition, there really can be little to quibble about when it comes to Fosun’s investment since 2016. Figures in The club’s most accounts revealed their outlay on players has now topped £370m, including a further £83m last summer.

Yet, like Villa, their income streams remain moderate when compared to the big six. Last season’s exhilarating run to the last eight of the Europa League delivered an estimated £20m in prize money, which is none too shabby until placed against the £87m claimed by Manchester City for reaching the same stage of the Champions League. Total Gate receipts for the year of £13m, meanwhile, were less than a seventh of the £95m reported in Tottenham’s accounts.

Wolves’ struggles this season have highlighted the importance of aspiring clubs getting their recruitment right. The issue at Molineux is less how much has been spent but where it has been spent. Lack of depth means Wolves have been unable to overcome the losses of Raul Jimenez and Jonny Otto in the same way Leicester, for example, have pressed on despite being without Jamie Vardy, James Maddison and Harvey Barnes at various points of the campaign.

The Foxes are in many ways the model for clubs aiming to break into the top six. Granted, their surprise Premier League title win in 2016 and subsequent run to the Champions League quarter-finals helped. But their success has been maintained in large part thanks to being savvy in the market. There have still been big misses (Ahmed Musa and Islam Slimani spring to mind) but many more hits. The likes of Riyad Mahrez, Harry Maguire and N’Golo Kante were sold for huge profits and adequately replaced.

Villa, interestingly, recruited one of Leicester’s former talent spotters Rob Mackenzie as their head of recruitment last year.

There will come a time, inevitably, when player trading becomes a larger part of their own strategy. You cannot keep spending big money bringing players in without some going the other way.

It may not be this summer, when a Covid-depressed market makes extracting full value tricky but may offer opportunities for clubs with deep pockets. Villa already demonstrated their willingness to take advantage of the struggles currently being experienced by French clubs with the January signing of Morgan Sanson. The midfielder, priced at £30m a year ago, arrived in the Midlands for an initial £14m.

More bold decision-making and perhaps the odd calculated gamble will likely be required to keep pushing up the table. So too will patience.