Nigel Hastilow: Irish border issue could prove May's downfall

Talk about making a drama out of a crisis. One minute Theresa May is sitting down having a nice lunch with her tormentor-in-chief, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and they are all smiles promising an agreement on Brexit.

The next she’s on the phone being harangued by her most important ally, Arlene Foster, leader of the Democratic Unionists.

It seems Mrs May forgot to keep the Unionists informed of what was going on or – which is worse – she couldn’t be bothered to tell them.

Mrs Foster claims she was kept in ignorance of the proposed deal with the EU on the orders of the Irish Republic.

Mrs May was offering what could be described as a ‘two state solution’ where Northern Ireland kept one foot in the EU and another in the UK.

This is obviously unacceptable to Unionists and would cause further trouble because the Scots, and perhaps the Welsh as well, would immediately demand the same deal.

For anyone who thinks leaving the EU means no longer being subject to its rules and regulations, as well as its court decisions, Mrs May’s apparent answer to the Ulster conundrum would never have worked.

So instead of the great triumph of an agreement between the two sides and the start of proper discussions about the future of trade relations between Britain and the EU, Mrs May is facing another battle on the home front with her own allies.

It is almost impossible to believe the DUP will go so far as to scupper a deal with the EU entirely. If they were to do so, it would inevitably lead to the collapse of Mrs May’s shaky Government and a General Election which the Conservatives surely could not win.

In other words, if the DUP don’t come to a deal with the British Government, they could well find themselves completely marginalised after an election which would put Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.

That prospect would terrify most Unionists – and not just Unionists – so we have to hope Mrs Foster and Mrs May will come up with some sort of a deal before the European summit next week.

It is still a crisis, however, and a crisis which seems to have been of our Government’s own making.

Do they value the integrity of the United Kingdom so little they are prepared to leave Northern Ireland in some kind of limbo, neither in the EU nor out of it?

Were they so arrogant they assumed Mrs Foster’s party would tag along whatever proposals were offered to them to deal with the issue of the Irish border?

Can it be possible they really just forgot about the Unionists? Or is it actually evidence that they still do not have a sensible, practical answer to a simple question – how do you enforce a land border between the UK and the EU?

It looks as if the truth is that, despite more than a year to think about it, the Government really does not have an answer to the demand for a ‘frictionless’ border.

Nobody wants armed guards and checkpoints along the 310-mile border between the two parts of Ireland. It could easily become a trigger for a renewal of the conflict which blighted the island until the Good Friday agreement.

There was, some time ago, talk of employing new technological innovations which would remove the need for a physical barrier of any sort. That seems to have died away now, probably because the technology doesn’t exist and, even if it did, you could be sure our incompetent Government would commission a system which cost the earth and failed to do what it said on the tin.

The collapse of Mrs May’s lunchtime agreement has caused much mirth and merrymaking among our European ‘friends’. One German radio station even declared: ‘Brexit is the biggest political idiocy since the Roman Emperor Caligula decided to appoint his favourite horse Incitatus as consul.’

It’s certainly true we are still no clearer what Brexit Britain will really look like. If no special arrangements are in place for Northern Ireland, and avoiding a ‘hard border’ is a priority, it seems likely this country would have to remain subject to EU laws.

In those circumstances we would leave Europe in name only. We would have to keep paying a membership fee but we would have no representation on any of its institutions – the worst of both worlds.

It is unbelievable that the border issue has not been resolved or even, it seems, properly addressed after all this time. A ‘special status’ for Northern Ireland is the Trojan horse which would deliver no Brexit at all.

And if Mrs May really cannot come up with a solution – and fast – then those people who thought her Premiership might only last until this Christmas could be proved right.