Alba Party could cost SNP its majority, poll suggests

The survey predicts the SNP will return 64 seats at the Holyrood election next month.

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon

Alex Salmond’s Alba Party threatens to cost the SNP its majority at Holyrood due to voters choosing it instead, a new poll suggests.

The Savanta ComRes poll for The Scotsman predicts the SNP will return 64 MSPs, one short of a majority, while the Alba Party will return none, but with 3% of the list vote.

The survey projects the SNP would return a constituency vote of 49% and a list vote of 40%

The number of Alba voters questioned in the survey of 1,007 Scottish adults was “extremely small”, however about 6% of people who voted SNP in 2016 said they would vote for Alba in May.

Scottish Parliamentary Elections 2021
Former first minister Alex Salmond launched the Alba Party in March (Andrew Milligan/PA)

Meanwhile, 4% of those who plan to vote SNP next month said they will choose SNP for their constituency vote and Alba on the list.

Analysis of the poll projects that if all Alba voters reverted to choosing First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s party, the SNP would have a majority of three MSPs.

However, it predicts a pro-independence majority of 74 MSPs as it projects that 10 Scottish Green MSPs will be elected.

The poll predicts the Scottish Conservatives will lose six seats, returning 25 MSPs, while Scottish Labour is predicted to return 23, one down on 2016.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats are predicted to gain one seat and return seven MSPs.

The poll also found support for Scottish independence is split.

It found that if an independence referendum were to be held tomorrow, 45% would vote Yes and the same proportion No, with the remainder undecided.

The poll was carried out between April 2 and 7.

It comes after a separate poll on Wednesday predicted that the SNP is forecast to win a majority of seats at the Scottish Parliament election on May 6.

The Ipsos Mori poll for STV found more than half (53%) of the respondents who are registered to vote and are at least 9/10 likely to do so intend to chose an SNP candidate in their constituency next month.

SCOTLAND Election
(PA Graphics)

This is a rise of one percentage point from the previous Ipsos Mori poll for STV in February.

Commenting on the Scotsman poll, SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “This poll shows this election outcome on a knife-edge, and reinforces that only by voting SNP on May 6 can people guarantee an SNP government, led by Nicola Sturgeon, which has the plans to remobilise our NHS, kick-start our economic recovery and improve lives across the country.

“At this election the way to ensure that people in Scotland are given the democratic opportunity to choose a better future – once the threat posed by the pandemic has passed – is to vote for the SNP. Anything else is taking a chance on the country’s future.

“The only safe way to ensure Scotland’s future lies in Scotland’s hands – not Boris Johnson’s – is to give both votes to the SNP on May 6.”

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