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Date for lifting Covid restrictions 'should be put back' amid warnings of 'calm before the storm'

The date for lifting remaining coronavirus restrictions should be put back, an expert in the transmission of viruses said today, amid fears about the spread of the Indian variant.

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Restrictions are due to be lifted on June 21.

It came as a Black Country public health boss warned the region "was on the cusp of something quite dangerous".

Remaining legal Covid restrictions are due to be lifted on June 21 following the success of the vaccine rollout and huge fall in hospital admissions and deaths.

But warnings of a potential "third wave" of cases have prompted some calls for the Government to abandon the date and wait longer before allowing lives to return to normal.

Boris Johnson is expected to make a final decision on June 14 as to whether restrictions can be lifted the following week.

Experts have warned that people spending more time out during this week's half-term holiday could lead to a spike in cases in the coming weeks.

Dr Arthur Hosie, a microbiologist at Staffordshire University, said there was a need to be cautious as a large proportion of the population have not yet received both vaccine doses.

He said: "I would urge caution. There is a lot of things happening which we won't know the full impact of until after the 14 when the decision on lifting restrictions is due to be made.

"The fact it is half-term and a lot of people are travelling around the country means people might be taking coronavirus back into their homes.

"The other thing is there is still uncertainty about whether the Indian variant has reached the older population. It sometimes takes a while to reach the vulnerable population.

"I think it would be prudent to push it back."

Dr Arthur Hosie

Dr Lisa McNally, director of public health in Sandwell, warned the virus was about to "get back up off the floor" amid an increase of Indian variant cases in the borough.

She said: “This is the calm before the storm. We are seeing cases rise quite sharply. We’ve had 26 cases in Sandwell

over Saturday and Sunday. The weekend before there were only nine. When you look at the figures you can we are on the cusp of something quite dangerous.”

Dr McNally said she was concerned there were still too many people who had not had the vaccine, and noted “particular gaps” among “certain ethnic groups”.

“If we thought we had seen the back of this pandemic we were wrong, because it is about to get back up off the floor and slap us on the back of the head.”

Lisa McNally, director of public health, Sandwell Council. Photo: Sandwell Council

Local restrictions were brought in for parts of the North West that were badly hit by the Indian variant, and Dr Hoise said similar measures may be needed in other parts of the country.

"Having local measures might be necessary to and suppress the virus," he said. "There are still a lot of people who are vulnerable."

Dr Hosie argued the vaccine rollout meant the easing of restrictions needed to be done carefully, as its success at keeping Covid at bay would force the virus to try to mutate.

"If we allow case numbers to increase we are giving an opportunity for vaccine escape," he warned.

"It is putting pressure on the virus to change."

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said the current Covid rates "don't look too intimidating" but they still need to "play out for a couple of weeks" before the Government makes its final decision on whether the June 21 reopening can go ahead.

He said: "I think the gain now is, can we get more people vaccinated down into younger, younger age groups to try and stop more transmission."

Dr McNally said: "Although we have done really well with the vaccine rollout, large numbers of people in the West Midlands have still not been vaccinated, and there are particular gaps in vaccinations in certain ethnic groups.

"They are incredibly vulnerable right now. If I was one of those people I would stop what I'm doing and go and get vaccinated because this is about to get very serious.

"For me it is all about individual awareness and we have to be honest and ask how much have we dropped our guard as individuals?

"Are we still on a daily basis seeking to protect ourselves and our families from infection? Or have we decided that it's all over and we're going to sleepwalk into something quite awful?

"The people who are now in intensive care in Bolton, they would have been forgiven for thinking only two months ago that the danger was over.

"If we can get to the point where the vast majority of people have had two doses of the vaccine, then we can say we are nearly there."

The NHS Confederation said new ONS figures, which show a 29 per cent fall in coronavirus deaths from the previous week, were reassuring but "the race is not yet won".

Director of policy Dr Layla McCay said: "Given predictions of a summer wave of infections, the Government must now use all available data to consider carefully whether June 21 is the right date for lifting all restrictions.

"It is of real concern that cases are climbing quickly, and our members are increasingly worried that this will lead to more hospital admissions."

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