A personal blueprint for survival
Thursday 21st April 2011, 9:10AM BST.
Wolves blogger Tim Spiers unfurls his own blueprint for survival as the club’s Premier League future hangs in the balance starting with Saturday’s visit of Fulham.
Six football matches, equating to 540 minutes or 32,400 seconds of nerve-shredding, gut-wrenching tension and drama.
That’s all we’ve got left now to secure our Premier League status for a third consecutive season.
When the fixture list was unveiled last April, a six-game run-in which included home games against Fulham, Albion and Blackburn, as well as trips to Birmingham and Sunderland, looked quite favourable.
But now, on the back of two awful defeats to Newcastle and Everton, nothing looks encouraging in what is becoming a torturous end to the season.
The teams around us, Blackpool aside, just keep on picking up points where they’re not supposed to and we now find ourselves bottom of the table.
Hopefully this will galvanise rather than demoralise the players, as they haven’t got time to be feeling sorry for themselves – it’s very nearly now or never for our survival hopes.
From 32 matches we’ve picked up 32 points, but if that trend continues it’s doubtful that a 38-point haul will be enough to stay up. Possible, yes, but doubtful.
Now I’ve been warned off making more predictions in this blog, what with Wigan not really looking like they’re actually going to finish in the top 10 and Doncaster somewhat unlikely to gain promotion.
But, from a few tentative calculations, I’ll give it a go anyway.
I’ve got West Ham, who face Chelsea and Manchester City away next, down to finish on 37 points, Blackpool on 38 and Wigan and Blackburn on 39.
At the moment, we’ve got a marginally better goal difference than Wigan by a solitary one strike, while Blackburn are six goals ahead of us at minus 14, but I don’t think my nerves can take it being decided on such a frivolous thing as goal difference.
So the golden 40 points mark, by my reckoning, is the minimum requirement needed from the final six games.
That means eight points from six fixtures, either coming from one win and five draws, or the more likely scenario of two wins and two draws.
Can we do it? Well at the moment we don’t look like we could beat the East Anglia under-15 girls team but, with a few tweaks here and there, we’ll give ourselves a good chance of picking up three points against Fulham this weekend.
Bringing Jody Craddock back into defence seems like a logical start, preferably in place of Richard Stearman.
Now Stearman hasn’t done too badly in recent weeks but there’s not enough experience, nous, or calmness in that defence.
Craddock formed a solid partnership with Christophe Berra when we went on that great run towards the back end of last season, so I would back them to do it again.
Kevin Foley has been in very poor form of late, most unlike him but, although it’s tempting to play Stearman or Michael Mancienne in that position, I would give the Irishman one more game to deliver.
As for the formation, is just has to be a 4-5-1. Has to be.
It’s been said time and again but playing 4-4-2 doesn’t protect our shaky defence and, with a 4-5-1, we get an extra man as protection, plus it means we get more out of our wingers.
There’s no one who can play Kevin Doyle’s lone front-man role to anywhere near the same standard, but Steven Fletcher is probably our best bet.
Fletcher wins a few headers, links play cleverly, knows where the goal is and is more mobile than Sylvan Ebanks-Blake.
Supporting him, in the frustrating absence of David Edwards, should be Jamie O’Hara, with Nenad Milijas and Karl Henry completing the central midfield line-up.
And as well as Adlene Guedioura played against Everton, Adam Hammill was hugely unfortunate to be dropped, even if it was a tactical ploy to subdue Leighton Baines.
So get the trickery and crossing ability of Hammill back on the right, with Jarvis out of his favoured left flank.
OK there you have it – a blueprint for survival. Convinced? No, me neither.
Saturday’s game may be one that will test our patience to the limit – looking at Fulham’s away record they have won just once on the road, but have drawn eight and conceded only 19 goals.
Only Chelsea have conceded fewer this season so, although the Cottagers have struggled for wins, they must be a tough nut to crack.
If there is any needle from the reverse fixture, when Karl Henry broke Bobby Zamora’s leg and the national media had a collective hernia in disgust, it may help our cause.
A high-tempo contest with a few meaty challenges would be right up our street and something which many of our players seem to prefer.
Either way it’s a game I’m cautiously looking forward to, after a much-needed break last weekend.
A Saturday afternoon without a soul-destroying defeat was very welcome indeed.
But it’s three points we need this weekend. A draw just won’t do.
UK Sport
Latest Blog — A week is a long time in football
This time last week we were staring down the barrel, third from bottom with a worse record than at the same stage last year, writes Saddlers blogger Mark Jones.
Saddlers Blog
Business Awards
Book a Business Awards table
Join our celebrations of the region's best in business on Thursday March 22 - book your table now
Lifestyle
Interactive Dining Out map
Hundreds of reviews by the Express & Star and Shropshire Star's teams to help you decide where to eat.
entertainment
All the film reviews
Before you plan a trip to the pictures, get our critics' verdicts on all the latest movie releases
OUR NEW APP
Get the new E&S app
Download the Express & Star’s new app to your iPad or iPhone to get one week of access to our digital newspapers absolutely FREE.
expressandstar.com
Popular sections
Useful links
The cut-off point will be 42 points. There will then be a party at the Newhampton featuring Rioja and complimentary servings of humble pie for all.
Report abuse
above blogg, I think you are very wide Of the mark very very very wide of the mark and for what its worth you’ve missed the mark completly.
Report abuse
Spot on Tim
Report abuse
Totally agree with your team selection, there is no way we can play 4-4-2 our defnce just isn’t good enough – with or without Craddock. We need the protection of the extra midfielder for sure, definately O’Hara and Henry and as much as I am a big fan of Addy he naturally gets forward to much leaving us vulnerable.
It has to be Fletch up front he is much more capable of playing upfront on his own, he did it for Burnley and clearly holds the ball up well. We then have the assurance of a good striker to come on in SEB, dependant on how that Hamstring is.
Hammill or Hunt(when fit) has to play on the right, Kites I have great concerns on how much impact he can have, with him not looking to sharp, I hope I’m wrong but he actually looked out of his depth against Everton – losing the ball and not being able to get passed the player. Isnt that his job??!
UTW!! I dont care how I just want the three points on Saturday please!!!!
Report abuse
Spot on Tim. My feelings precisely. Hammill is a handful ( alliteration?) and was most unfortunate to lose his place. Given that Jarvis has crossed more balls than any other wide player in the Premier this season and Hammill is developing his skill in this, it seems appropriate to have the best players with aerial skills to complement these wide players…and Fletcher and Craddock could make a formidable threat.
Report abuse
I agree that 4-5-1 is probably the answer. We don’t look good enough in a 4-4-2.
Our defence is poor and unprotected in this formation. As goal difference may determine whether we stay up, then an extra man in midfield is essential to conceding fewer goals.
I’d bring Craddock back in too as we look shaky at the back and heads drop when we concede, at least he brings experience and can lead by example.
I also think Milijas needs to be brought back in and other then Jarvis, he’s arguably been our player of the year.
I’m worried that Mick will continue to play 4-4-2 and it’s this that will cost us. However, this formation with different personnel is a different proposition but we all know Henry, Ward et al will get picked.
So 4-5-1 has to be the way forward.
Hennessey (I’d prefer Hahnemann)
Foley (last chance)
Craddock
Berra (only because they worked well together last year)
Ward (I’d prefer Mancienne)
Hammil or Kightly
Henry
O’Hara
Milijas
Jarvis
Fletcher
Report abuse
……………..Hennessey
Foley….Craddock…Berra……….Ward
……………Henry……………
………Milijas….O’Hara……….
Hammill……………………….Jarvis
……………Fletch………….
Report abuse
Nice article Tim.
Personally I think Saturday will most likely tell us everything (despite a further 5 games to go)
A Win…. and the the previous two games can be consigned to the deepest recesses of the memory bank
A Defeat… and its Goodnight Vienna for me. Cannot see us mentally recovering from 3 straight defeats from games where needed an absolute MINIMUM of 3 points.
2 or 3 games is a long time in this league. Suddenly all our Midlands rivals look safe. The article last week where the local Managers were discussing survival immediately looked horribly dated.
The positive I will end on is one I wrote earlier in the Week
Last time we absolutely needed 3 home points was Blackpool. Huge pressure and expectation and we ‘turned up big time’
Report abuse
Predictions:
Fulham – Home win 3-1
Stoke – Away draw 2-2
Birmingham – Away draw 1-1
WBA – Home win 2-0
Sunderland – Away win 1-0
Blackburn – Home win 3-1
Points = 14
Total for season = 46 points and safe.
Come on Numpties tell me I am deluded!
But at least I am positive and will, as always, relish supporting my team home and away.
Happy Clapping got us up two years ago and kept us up last season – can the moaners claim the same success????
Bring it on………..
UTW
Report abuse
Win one game and draw a couple of others, dont lose to Blackburn and you will find we will be safe. Very few points will be gained by the teams at the bottom between now and the end of the season.
Report abuse
There are no easy games in the Prem – and Fulham will be no exception. We desperately need a win sometime soon – both to rebuild confidence but, more importantly, to get some much needed points on the board. On paper, Fulham at home would be the type of fixture that anyone in the bottom 6 would target as winnable, but we all know games are not won on paper.
Don’t care how we do it, we’ve just got to get 3 pts on Saturday to keep this hugely disappointing season alive. Lose… and whilst not mathematically down….. I just do not see a way back for us. A draw would have us clinging on to our Premiership status by our fingernails… but only just.
Time for MM and the players to deliver. My heart hopes collectively they’re up to it…… but my head tells me to fear the worst!
WTID
Report abuse
Who ever plays up front we need to adopt a ‘shoot on sight’ mentality. It’s OK having the ball and creating good opportunities to score, we need to get more shots on goal this has been a problem all season. I know its a cliche but its true, if you don’t buy a ticket you aren’t gonna win the lottery. If we can have another performance like we had against Fulham last year we should have 3 points. UTW.
Report abuse
9. Sir Billy Quiet
You’re diluded and also in cuckoo land.
That’s not being positive. It’s just being down right silly.
Get real.
Report abuse
There’s not much I agree with in this blog, other than 38 points will not be enough to ensure survival.
I really think we should be aiming for 42 points as the safety mark. Which ever way we do it, we need 10 points from the remaining games.
Can’t see Fletcher being very successful in that lone striker role. On that basis I favour 4-4-2 with Ebanks-Blake playing alongside Fletcher. It seemed to be working quite well for the first 20 minutes against Everton. Why we capitulated after they scored is still a mystery to me.
Other than bringing in Ward for Elokobi, I would leave the defence as they were. Bring back Craddock for the more physical game against Stoke.
Whatever team McCarthy selects, we need all eleven players giving their all for 90+ minutes.
Report abuse
A few good points but Blackburn are not picking up points for starters and West Ham are hardly in any form either. Another team in terrible form is Sunderland but they will hopefully see off Wigan and therefore secure their safety. Chelsea will beat West Ham and let’s hope for a spirited Newcastle performance at Blackpool. Blues who are not quite safe will lose at Liverpool also.
Now forget about the others. It is in Wolves’ hands after all. We can and must beat Fulham. Stoke will be difficult and then we have Blues – who we have already shown, can be put to the sword and we owe them one from last year. UTW!
Report abuse
It has to be Hannerman in goal, no question, andFoley should sit this out.
Report abuse
13 Phil Smith
6 game unbeaten run against teams in the bottom half of the Premiership? why not?
To dream is to believe.
Get your positive Happy Clapping head on and anything is possible!
UTW
Report abuse
Look this is no time for sentiment Foley has to be dropped as you can guarantee he will be at fault for at least one goal in every game. Sorry that is fact. The other dead weight is injured but the Love Child srteps in so only marginally better.
Up against at team that is well organised and with Sidwell happy to kick us off the park I will have no nails left come end of the game !
1-0 win with last kick of the match would be perfect !
Report abuse
Agree with your line up though not sure about Fletcher over SEB.
Also its worth pointing out that Henry DIDNT break Zamora’s leg, it wasn’t even a foul, he fell awkwardly.
Get it right, you’re supposed to be on our side!!!!
2 -0 Saturday, Jarvis & OHara
KTF
Wolvesforever
Report abuse
9. Get your season ticket next to me next season mate, your the kind of supporter we need. Not like those lot down the road who booed their own Keeper when they lost to Chelsea?!
I can see both Albion and Sunderland getting dragged into this. Hopefully Sunderland will beat Wigan this weekend and get themselves out of it but Albion are away at Spurs followed by two derbies in Villa and us.
Been a real stop-start season with injuries but a win V Fulham and everything starts to look rosey again. We then need two very stubborn and professional away performances followed by 3 points over the Tescos, COME ON ME BABBIES!
Hahnemann
Foley
Craddock
Stearman
Mancienne
Hammill
Guerdioura
Henry
O’Hara
Jarvo
Fletch
Report abuse
12: The cliche is:
“if you dont buy a ticket, you dont win the raffle” – trademarked to Big Ron Atkinson.
Now – come on Wolves. Just please get stuck in – we were really missing that vs Everton, and no late tackles.
I will be preying for a good ref too.
Report abuse
Great call number 7 (WolfyTor74). I think your team is spot on. The only possible change would be perhaps Guerdioura in for Milijas.
The game on Saturday is as big as it gets and we need players who will give it their absolute all. For me I would rather have Guedioura next to me in the trenches than Milijas!!! Milijas has ability but Guedioura can drive us forward and wont hold back even if he is not 100%
I would give Fletcher the nod ahead of SEB although I thought that he was awful against Everton.
The reason we lost against Everton (apart from woeful defending) was that our two best players (Jarvis and O’Hara) both had shockers. We cant afford them to play like that again, as we rely on those two to make things happen.
Report abuse
42 points to be safe… you are having a laugh!
The reason is as follows:-
Wigan – best hope of a single win out of five fixtures is West Ham at home
West Ham – only chance of staying up is winning 2 out of the last 3 fixtures and 2 of them are six pointers ie Wigan and Blackburn
Blackpool – only chance is with 3 tough home games. Spurs and Man Utd away equals nil points!
Blackburn – terrible form and have Man Utd and Man City to play at home, Bolton also and then the two 6 pointers – West Ham and Wolves
Things will be clearer after the weekend but 38 or 39 will still be the safety level I think. If I am wrong shoot me down and if we go down, you will still see me travelling the country with Wolves!
Report abuse
9 – Sir Billy Quiet
Nice one….like your style; £5 accumulator on those results would buy us Messi in the summer!
Keep the spirit.
Report abuse
Blueprint for survival?
GET RID OF MICK!!
simples xxxxxx
Report abuse
I think it’s down to 3 out of the currently 5 bottom teams – I think the likes of Birmingham, Stoke, Sunderland, Fulham and West Brom likely to pick up enough points from their remaining games to be comfortable (and no, I don’t mean against us since they are 5 of our 6 remaining fixtures – necessarily!).
So, of those 5 teams, there are 3 six pointers:
West Ham v Blackburn on the 7th May (when we play the Boggies next day), Wigan v West Ham on the 15th May (after we’ve played Sunderland away the day before) and us against Blackburn on the final day. Wigan have arguably the easiest run in whilst Blackburn’s – other than Man U – looks half decent too.
I think the whole thing will be a lot clearer in a fortnight if that’s not stating the bleeding obvious – West Ham’s next two games are away at Chelsea and Man City, Blackpool will have to get a minimum of 3 points from Newcastle and Stoke at home (since they have Tottenham and Man U away in their last three games) and with us facing Fulham, Stoke and Birmingham, all of which we could get something from, it would give us a real chance to get to the top end of that pack of 5
Report abuse
Im not sure what amnount of points we need to save our BPL place,as MM would say 1pt more than the 3rd team below us will do for me. But i firmly believe 4.5.1. is our best and most proven system, its proved playing 5 in midfield keeps us in games longer,and makes us tighter in defence,and we’ve gained more points using it. Going off the subject, i watched a ‘throw back’to the old days last night Spurs v Arsenal,end to end football you could take your eyes off it or you missed a goal. But i listened to Ray Wilkins ( the crab ) who was also on Sunday’s match talking, he talks so much sense and sees alot of things we viewers/supporters dont see. For instance he said everytime Assou-Ekotto gets down the flank, Crouch goes to the back post for the cross? Then later said something alot of people on here often say, ‘forwards should NEVER mark forwads cause they DONT think like a defender does’??? He may mean at set-plays or not, but thats why ive said so many times on here Ward shouldn’t play LB, i dont care what MM says he’s a FOWARD not a defender,never has been never will be,his positional sense is awful i.e. closing down his player. Why if/hope we stay up,dont we get Wilkins in as 1st team coach,with Gus Poyet as manager/coach if MM stays as manager,all the good teams have top coaches, we have our own RW ( the crab ) in Karl Henry who imo has a very similar style to RW had, but again imo think KH is vastly underated imo. UTW: 3pts on Saturday lads please.
Report abuse
Whatever, I’ll be there on Saturday. Go for it lads. UTW
Report abuse
Adlene Guedioura has to play! I would drop Henry and have Adlene playing the anchor role as he likes a takle and distributes the ball well, oh and he is so much more mobile than Henry and more creative and………
SORT IT MM!
Report abuse
The whole lot of you are crazy…How many of you have actually seen Wolves play this season.
I for one have been to every home game, and missed only two away games, and I will tell you all for nothing, Wolves, my beloved Wolves, are not good enough to compete with most of the Premiership clubs at the minute, I believe that we will be relegated, we will finish bottom, and in my opinion, we have no chance, repeat, no chance of beating Fulham on Saturday.
The likes of Bobby Zamora, Andrew Johnson, and the fairly strong forward line will tear Wolves
defence apart, and the Aussie stalwart Mark Swartzner is no bunny in goal.
I truly believe that we will go down 1-3 especially if we rely on Hennersey in goal,and maybe 1-2 if Hannerman is keeper.
All in all, the bottom six are all stronger than Wolves, you would only have to watch Wigan last week.
Get ready for Championship football, I did several weeks ago, and anyone that really believes Wolves have a hope in hell of survival from here, is either blind, or from another planet, lets get real, Wolves last two performances when winning was essential was pathetic, the Fulham game will go the same way.
Nurse….Nurse
Report abuse
no24
Report abuse
no24 I will try again.You don’t think Moxey would pay Messi’s wages do you? Best of luck to Mick and the lads for Saturday.If we can beat Man Utd,Chelsea and Man City surely ,when so much depends on it,we can take care of Tommy Trinder’s Fulham.Build a victory from the back by keeping it tight.
Report abuse
38 points could easily be enough, unless there are a few shock results v Man U or Chelsea.
Fulham isn’t a ‘must win’ game. We could actually lose the next 4 but win the last 2 & we’re safe.
Report abuse
@23 BRW
I feel like we’re going over old ground here.
32 games have gone. A point a game – your cut-off point – has us absolutely dead last with six games to go. Your maths and statistical analysis skills are dodgy and you assume that every last result is going to go according to form, in a season where that has, week in week out, never happened.
I’ll begrudgingly give you 41, but no lower. 38, we’re going down and probably doing so propping everyone else up into the bargain.
Report abuse
Time for SEB and Fletch to step up to the plate.Being relegated in the worst Premier League ever would be evidence of Mick’s ineptitude at this level.Its still all to play for though..be a good idea to hypnotise
the players that they are playing ManU at home
over the next six games.
Report abuse
Sue, As you have named myself and some others in a previous article, and you don’t appear to understand why we are so critical of the Manager this season.
I along with several others have clearly laid out my reasons for my comments all season, which have been mainly targeted at our Manager, and Chairman
I would be interested to hear your comments as to why you believe as you do in him, not what he has done in the last so many years etc, but what he has done this season which is what he is being paid for, and why you think we are bottom with relegation a distinct possibility, as per this article
Report abuse
Your all assuming Craddock is match fit.
He hasn’t played for a year.
I fear the worst tomorrow, I really do.
Report abuse
superwolf the realist – I am not sure who needs the “nurse” the most, us or you. What will you say if we win on Saturday? Why not wait until the last game is over before you write any sort of comment like the above? Why accuse those of us who are remaining positive of being blind, etc.? Safety may not be assured but it could happen – isn’t that part of the magic of football?
Report abuse
35 – the worst premier league ever was last season as evidenced by the fact that you only needed 30 points and a goal difference of -39 to have stayed up (even counting back Pompey’s 9-point deduction).
Report abuse
Fulham will be a very tough test as they do not concede that easily and if our defence folds like Gadaffi’s tent again then we will be in deep trouble. I would definitely bring Craddock in for this match for his leadership and he can be dangerous on set plays.
We seem better disposed to play 4-5-1 with two wingers but we need O’Hara and Jarvis to get back on form to provide some extra drive and width when we get forward.
A draw would not be disastrous providing other scores fall in our favor and everyone stays within three points of us. However, the goal has to be three points NOW rather than later to put the squeeze on everyone else languishing in the basement.
If we manage to survive this mess then management has to take a hard look at what the plan will be for next season as we cannot carry on like this – we have to establish ourselves as a mid table Club in this League. The season has been really disappointing and the Manager has to take responsibility.
COME ON YOU WOLVES!!!
Report abuse
All Alone and Who Are WBA disguised as the Chuckle Bros.
Even your friendly moderators were too embarrassed to let your early morning post on our Vela may play site stay on for long but
I know that you know that I know that you know that I know,Hilarious.They save you from hell of a beating.
Adéu
Report abuse
Superwolf. You are the delusional one. Who did you watch Wigan play well against? Blackpool? We will stay up with some to spare.
Report abuse
Mick will pick a team which 40% of the posters on this site will agree with, 40% won’t agree with and 20% won’t understand. We’ll beat Fulham 2-0 and go on to accumulate enough points to stop up.
Sorted !
Now down to the important stuff. Remember how, in the good old days fans used to turn up with shovels and help clear the snow off the pitch to get the FA Cup Third Round tie against Bournmouth & Boscombe Athletic played ?
Well…..
I heard a rumour that if you want to help speed up the building of the new North Bank Jez is looking for a few hod carriers this summer.
He’s even going to throw in a few pies, (which may be slightly out of date, bless him).
Come and help make some history instead of jetting off to Torremelinos.
Bring a hard hat.
Report abuse
42 Jake
Send me some of that LSD will you.
Remind me of the internationals we have playing for us.
Then compare:-
Zamora/Gera/AJ/Dembele/Greening/Murphy/Hangelan/Schwartzer/Knight/Pantzil/Dempsy/Davies/Mark Hughes/Michael Jackson
Sorry was getting a bit high myself then.
Not McCarthey’s fault alone.
Will be playing the Battle of the Investments in their Stadiums Match in the Championship next Year.
Morgan you are conning the fans, trying to stay up on the cheap.
Report abuse
34) I am in fact very good at maths. U r thinking that sides like Wigan, West Ham, Blackpool and Blackburn r going to accrue many more points in their next 5 games? No they r not! Even the blogger is suggesting 39. Mark my words that u r miles out with 41!
Report abuse
He’s even going to throw in a few pies, (which may be slightly out of date, bless him)
No thank you all the stale pies can go to that grotty back street pub,its a couple of Jesse Pyes we need.
Report abuse
BrummieRob, i think your right 38 or 39 points should be enough, i think PeteNuts has had a glass or two or should i say a bottle or two of his favorite tipple Rioja when he made his wild predictions.
PS lets get the Mol rocking on saturday and send them cockney sparrows back to the smoke with their tales between their legs. UTW.
Report abuse
Tim – agree with most but would drop Foley for Mancienne. Is it not blindingly obvious that Hanneman is a vastly superior goalkeeper to Hennessey?
Report abuse
#30, superwolf the realist, good to hear you go to all the home games (and most of the aways). So don’t forget to tell nurse about the home wins you’ve already seen against Stoke, M City, Sunderland, Birmingham, Chelsea, United and Blackpool. Hopefully you’ll have the chance to tell her about the one over Fulham as well.
You’re a Wolf, you know how to snarl don’tcha, just bare your teeth and breathe.
Report abuse
TheFlyingerwinger- is it so wrong to believe in somebody! what’s the alternative to berate and belittle all the time, I do admit to liking MM is that so wrong, whatever you say I think he has done well for the Wolves,I also have times when I get down.. It’s just that some never give a good word.
On another note for the 1st time in years I can’t get there tomorrow so I hope everyone gets behind them..
Report abuse
Blueprint for survival? I seem to recall Muppet had a blueprint for consolidation in the Premiership. Correct me if I’m wrong, I think it was called job Done – Mission Accomplished.
Report abuse
Come on wolves win today or next season we could be going to Milton Keynes,
Report abuse
Number 9,you are indeed deluded. Optimistic would be too kind a word to link with such a blinkered and bewildering set of score predictions. Enjoy your dreaming before the inevitable nightmare of relegation becomes reality!
Report abuse