Turn back the clock 12 months and you will find some spooky similarities between this campaign and the last for manager Martin O’Neill and his Villa team.

For the second successive season, John Carew has emerged from a winter of hibernation to blossom with a spring scoring spurt.

Just like a year ago, the claret and blues find themselves increasingly looking over their shoulders at an Everton team closing in on them by the week rather than the top-four spot which for so long looked within their grasp.

Once again, the apparent explanation? Burn-out. Fatigue. Exhaustion. Call it what you want.

Last term O’Neill courted controversy by leaving his stars at home for the second leg trip to CSKA Moscow, insisting his squad was not big enough to cope with the dual demands of fighting for the UEFA Cup and a Champions League spot.

The rest is history, of course, as his tired team ran out of steam and eventually finished seventh behind the Toffees.

A year on and approximately £40million spent on six new players – Stephen Warnock, Richard Dunne, Stewart Downing, James Collins, Fabian Delph and Habib Beye – but very little has changed.

O’Neill’s policy of calling on the same players week-in, week-out is arguably a major reason behind the credible achievement of reaching a Carling Cup final and FA Cup semi-final as well as challenging for the Champions League for three quarters of the campaign.

But, ultimately, it has been their undoing too. Last week’s admission by Downing that the players were “dead on their feet” rang painfully true at Chelsea on Saturday as the Blues ran riot to win 7-1.

It was Villa’s worst-ever Premier League defeat and once again they have entered the home straight running on empty. But, unlike last year, it could arguably have been avoided.

Warming the bench have been established Premier League players like Steve Sidwell, Luke Young, Habib Beye, Curtis Davies and, before injury struck, Nigel Reo-Coker. Another, Nicky Shorey, was allowed to join Fulham on loan.

O’Neill has also had the option to call on one of the country’s hottest young prospects in Fabian Delph, as well as promising young stars Nathan Delfouneso and Marc Albrighton.

But even for a game against Championship side Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, the manager largely stuck with the same tried and tested players.

There was a telling remark in an interview in February building up to the Burnley game when he said: “Whether we’re better equipped than last year I’m not sure, because we have gone with the same group of players.”

The squad might be bigger, but is the Villa boss convinced it’s better? The answer would seem fairly clear from that statement and his team selection.

Now it would be wholly unreasonable to expect any manager to get every signing right. The mere mention of Massimo Taibi and Kleberson must send a chill down Sir Alex Ferguson’s spine.

But, four years into the job, this squad is very much O’Neill’s and yet there seems a reluctance to call beyond 13 or 14 players.

His other problem come the summer could be persuading these peripheral players, essentially the experienced quintet, they should stay on.

Alternatively, should he decide to cash in on any of that expensively-assembled group, who cost close to £35million between them, the chances are he would be lucky to receive half.

It is a situation O’Neill could well have to consider if January is anything to go by with owner Randy Lerner looking set to tighten the purse strings, something no manager is ever going to welcome.

The manager and Lerner’s alliance has often been placed on a pedestal, a template for how other clubs should operate.

But the pair’s relationship came under the spotlight for the first time this week when the club were forced to rubbish rumours O’Neill had quit over a dispute with the American over this summer’s transfer policy.

Although it quickly became clear the speculation was pure pie in the sky, it was still plausible enough for one national newspaper and radio station to initially run with it.

Now nearly four years in, this is a defining period in O’Neill’s tenure. So far, his Villa have neither under-achieved or over-achieved, their fortunes a fair reflection on the investment into the club compared to their big-four rivals and Manchester City and Tottenham.

Two key objectives in the short term are securing European football and finishing above Birmingham. But, for a £179million investment, Lerner will expect silverware or Champions League football sooner or later too.

O’Neill still has an ace up his sleeve, though, in the shape of next week’s FA Cup semi-final.  Should Villa overcome the psychological blow of last week to beat Chelsea and then go on to win the competition then no-one can argue with his accomplishments.

Undoubtedly, the manager has taken the club forwards, the question now is how much further?

By Brendan McLoughlin