Analysis of Villa 1 Stoke 0

Monday 21st December 2009, 7:59AM GMT.

8146819So that’s the starter out of the way – now for the main course.

With John Carew’s second-half winner having laid the demons of last season’s doomed draw with Stoke to rest, now Villa can switch their attention to their two biggest games of the season.

It might only be December but that’s exactly what the festive fixtures with Arsenal on the 27th and Liverpool two days later represent for Martin O’Neill and his high flying team.

Because, if they can emerge from those two games with positive results the Champions League really will be starting to look more than just a dream.

Right now, after four consecutive Premier League wins – all of them complete with clean sheets – they are the form team in what looks the tightest tussle at the top for years.

Just as they did at the halfway stage last year, they look well placed to clinch one of those golden four tickets to Europe’s elite competition. In fact, the similarities with 12 months ago are striking.

Exactly, a year to the day since he responded to questions over his team’s title credentials with that ‘You haven’t been drinking have you?’ retort, Martin O’Neill again found himself fielding the very same enquiries. It was a fair question, given his fourth-placed team are just six points adrift of leaders Chelsea and two behind Manchester United.

Only this time the Villa boss did not even offer up one of his infamous droll responses. Instead, he quickly sidestepped the issue and changed the subject. Don’t expect his stance to change in a hurry either.

Why? Well, after seeing his team’s top-four assault collapse in the final third of last term, he knows better than to talk their chances up.

Champions elect? Now let’s not get carried away. But there are two things in particular Villa have going for them that they didn’t have last time out.

First of all, there’s the bigger squad – which sooner rather than later O’Neill will have to call on if his team are to avoid burnout over the next few weeks for what is the busiest spell of the season. Then there’s the new-found resilience of this team.

Saturday was by no means one of their best displays this term but again they dug out a victory – thanks largely to the same defence which kept Manchester United and Sunderland at bay.

There was no way Villa’s back four was ever going to crumble like it did on that ill-fated afternoon of March 1 when they blew a 2-0 lead with two minutes left to draw 2-2 – a setback from which their Champions League challenge never recovered. You sense that won’t be the case this time. Yet while there are differences this year, there are uncanny similarities too.

Last year Villa spent Christmas day third with 34 points, this year they will spend it fourth with 35. Last year they excelled in December with four wins and a draw, so too this time with four straight victories. Last year came a colossal showdown with top-four rivals Arsenal at Villa Park on Boxing Day. This year the opposition and the stakes will be the same, with the game a day later at the Emirates Stadium.

Having already beaten Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea so far gives Villa the chance to complete a ‘Grand Slam’ of wins over the big boys. Never under O’Neill will have they made the trip to North London, where they triumphed 2-0 last season, with such confidence.

Make no mistake, they will have few games tougher than Saturday’s with the Potters every inch the uncompromising, physical, combative side Villa will have remembered from last year – as well as now possessing a football genius in the shape of Turkish delight, Tuncay.

No wonder O’Neill hailed it as their biggest win of the campaign. After those gruelling away days at Old Trafford and the Stadium of Light, it was a mammoth effort from his team to dig out another three points against one of the Premier League’s most stubborn sides.

Stoke certainly played their part in an open, hard-fought contest but it was Villa who began the more menacingly. If Richard Dunne should have done better with Stewart Downing’s 10th-minute free-kick which bounced up kindly only for him to head well wide, then Gabby Agbonlahor definitely should have been celebrating six minutes later.

Skipper Stiliyan Petrov’s shot was fiercely struck but straight down the barrel, Thomas Sorensen could only beat it away to Agbonlahor five yards out, but the Villa striker failed to find either corner and his shot down the middle was smothered by the ex-Villan.

In truth, he should never have had the chance. There was a blow for Villa when Emile Heskey was forced off on 21 minutes with Carew coming on as his replacement. And their day looked to have got worse when Mamady Sidibe rose above Stephen Warnock to head home after 33 minutes.

But the goal was ruled out, rather fortuitously it must be said, for a push on the Villa left-back.

The claret and blues’ chances were falling to Carew and twice the Norway star was left cursing. First, the striker could only get a toe on Ashley Young’s teasing inswinger only to see it creep past the post. Then the England winger picked out Carew with a brilliant lofted pass only for the big striker to blaze over the bar on the turn.

Stoke always looked a threat though, and could have easily taken the lead when a corner fell kindly to Glenn Whelan only for the midfielder to blaze over. It was a chance Tony Pulis’ men would soon come to rue missing.

After 61 minutes, Downing spread the play out to Ashley Young wide on the right and his cross was headed home by Carew. Back in March the Norway star looked all but certain to have wrapped up the points when he made it 2-0 with what proved to be Villa’s goal of the season.

The rest is history, of course, as Villa’s defence crumbled in the final two minutes. But this time there was to be no repeat.

An incredible last-ditch block from Luke Young on Tuncay was the pick, while Ricardo Fuller wasted the game’s last chance when he curled over with seconds remaining.

By Brendan McLoughlin



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