What Wolves need to beat the drop

Tuesday 24th November 2009, 10:04AM GMT.

CHELSEA V WOLVES 11 GD 21Wolves correspondent Tim Nash goes through the Premier League record books to see what history can tell us about the current predicament of the Molineux club.

Thirteen games into the season and has anything changed from last time around at Molineux?

Wolves are in the same position – second bottom of the Premier League – with an identical record and points total as Dave Jones’s side in 2003/04.

Both teams had already suffered a heavy drubbing against Chelsea, conceded four at Molineux to another London team (Charlton and Arsenal), capitulated at Blackburn and failed to score at home to Portsmouth. Even the goals against column and the gap to safety – 26 and one point – are exactly the same.

But that is where the similarities end. There are numerous differences between the sides that Jones built and the Mick McCarthy version that offers hope that the Class of 2009 can achieve something the 2003-04 version couldn’t. Survival.

We all know what happened to Jones’ lot.

A lack of investment in an ageing side meant they were effectively down before they kicked a ball in anger, though they gave it a damned good go before succumbing to the inevitable. The big advantage McCarthy’s players have is they can do something about their position.

It’s very much in their own hands. They can’t change the past, but they can shape the future. Sunday’s clash against Birmingham and the visit of Bolton the following Sunday have assumed huge importance. McCarthy’s players have the chance to change what is ahead of them.

A couple of wins could change everything. Another factor in favour of the current squad is their age.

Not only are they ‘young and hungry’ and have lots more ‘legs’ than Paul Butler, Paul Ince and Co, but their inexperience at this level means there is a refreshing desire to keep going when older heads may be more inclined to give up the ghost.

Deep in the DNA of Jones’ 2003-04 side, they probably knew they were going to get relegated. Experience told them so. At 36, 38 and 34 respectively, Ince, Denis Irwin and Alex Rae were older, wiser and had seen it all and privately knew the shortcomings of their team.

They knew they were under-powered and under-strength for the brutal demands of the toughest league in the world. They gave it a tremendous fight for much of the season, especially in the second half of the campaign when they took 18 of their 33 points from 19 games.

Take a look through Wolves’ starting XI for Saturday’s 4-0 defeat at Chelsea and the picture is somewhat different.

Thirty-four-year-old Jody Craddock apart, the line-up featured two players of 22, four of 23, two of 24 and two of 26 in an average age of 24 years, 199 days. In short, a group of players who are improving.

Six years ago, virtually all of the players had their best days behind them. Perhaps more importantly, it’s also a much more united Wolves this time around. Six years ago, the relationship between owner-chairman and manager was in its dying throes.

Sir Jack Hayward never forgave Jones’ failure to deliver promotion in 2001-02 and his bitterness at the turn of events meant the younger man was never going to be given the same funds again.

The final drama of relegation was played out under a feisty backdrop of player unrest as an angry Butler, in a tirade about how players were risking their livelihoods going into 50-50 tackles with no guaranteed future at the club, went public on the club’s refusal to negotiate contracts before their fate was sealed.

Fast forward and it’s very difficult to imagine similar headlines coming out of Molineux now. Under the ‘Three Ms’, Wolves have their closest and strongest alliance they have enjoyed at boardroom and manager level for over three decades.

It’s a different club, a different dressing room and a different kind of leadership. Stability has replaced uncertainty.

From the signings made, through the vast advances made in scouting and on the medical side to the plans being drawn up for the ‘new Molineux’, the infrastructure is growing at a healthy rate and there is now a feeling that a long term strategy is being firmly applied.

Should the team fall short and the planning have to be scaled down, there are players whose re-sale value would keep the bank manager happy. Back in 2003-04, Henri Camara was the club’s only asset worth a million or two.

It might be reflected in a better team at the moment, but no matter how this season pans out, Wolves are a much stronger club. Whatever happens this season, the fans will give McCarthy the chance to play out his hand.

He has surely earned the right by taking a skeleton team from Championship relegation possibles to Championship title winners and Premier League survival hopefuls in three years.What is clear is Wolves must improve if they are going to stay up.

The average number of points required to reach safety over the last six years is 37, meaning Wolves need 27 from 25 games to reach ‘dry’ land.

Last season, even Albion, relegated as the bottom club, had a point more than Wolves at this stage, while Newcastle had three more and Middlesbrough – sitting happily in 10th – had 17.

The season before, Blues went down despite being 15th on a point more after 13 games, while Reading dropped out of the Premier League despite being 12th on 13 points from the same number of matches. But there are beacons of hope to cling to.

That same 2007-08 season, Bolton and Wigan survived despite being wedged firmly in the bottom three with just eight points at this stage. Above them, Sunderland and Middlesbrough survived despite having the same 10 points as Wolves have now.

In 2004/05, two out of the bottom three in Albion and Blackburn survived after having picked up just nine points from 13 games, just like Everton, on 10 points, did the following season. History tells us that it’s all in Wolves’  hands now.



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