Twelve months ago at the end of Gordon Brown’s first conference as Labour leader and Prime Minister, the governing party had an opinion poll lead of 11 per cent, writes political editor John Hipwood.

To coin a phrase and with apologies to Harold Wilson, a year is clearly a long time in politics, and Mr Brown is beginning a crucial five days in Manchester bloodied, battered and bewildered – but not yet beaten.

His first appearance on stage at the Manchester Central Convention Complex this afternoon will set the tone for the conference. A confident and assured performance during a Question & Answer session would see doubting delegates warm to him.

Throughout this year, the Labour Party has been like a huge sailing ship being buffeted by squall after squall while the captain stayed below decks sulking. What Labour ministers, MPs, activists and trade union leaders wanted was a Captain Courageous to get behind the wheel and steer them around the Cape of Good Hope.

This is Mr Brown’s chance to take on that role. He has lost a few deckhands overboard, including Charles Clarke with a big splash, and a few others, including one junior minister whom no-one outside Westminster had ever heard of, but his senior serving officers, although grumbling in the background when off-duty, have by and large rallied round in public, as David Miliband, the most troublesome of his lieutenants, did today.

The Prime Minister has shown in opening the door to, if not actually brokering, the takeover of Halifax/Bank of Scotland by Lloyds TSB, that he is in there fighting to keep the British economy above water.

Yes, the opinion polls are dreadful for Labour. Twenty per cent is a huge gap to close in what will probably be 18 months to the general election.

But the Labour Party must come together in Manchester over the next few days, or defeat will be guaranteed. Many Labour MPs believe that defeat is already inevitable, and if they continue to give that impression, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. There will doubtless be difficult moments for the leadership in Manchester – some tough and damging things said at fringe meetings, and motions from the trade unions. But there is no mood among the majority to blindfold the captain, tie his hands behind his back, and make him walk the plank into an early retirement.

And now Labour knows it has a million smackers in the bank to help ease its financial woes. And you can be sure that J K Rowlings words which accompanied her gift will be repeated again and again.

“I believe that poor and vulnerable families will fare much better under the Labour Party than they would under a Cameron-led Conservative Party,” she said.

Perhaps Harry Potter can weave a bit of magic for Labour.