It is make or break time for Gordon Brown at the Labour Conference. Political Editor John Hipwood reports

At about half past three next Tuesday afternoon, Gordon Brown will receive a standing ovation from an audience of Labour activists, MPs and trade unionists in the main hall at the Manchester Central Convention Complex.

Some in the audience might sit on their hands but the vast majority at the Labour Party conference will be on their feet, clapping in a huge show of unity. Something similar happened in the same conference hall two years ago when Tony Blair made his keynote speech to the conference. Within eight months, he would have left 10 Downing Street.

This time, no-one knows what the Prime Minister’s future will be. Mr Brown could also be out of office, although he won’t go voluntarily.

The shockwaves felt all over the world by the financial earthquake in the United States will play both for and against the Labour leader.

In such conditions, the traditional and biggest target to kick is the Government, so there will be no long-term comfort for Mr Brown, Chancellor Alistair Darling or anyone associated with the Labour administration.

Mr Darling will be making his keynote speech to the conference a little over 24 hours before Mr Brown.

They will be singing from the same hymn sheet, and they will be rehearsing their lines religiously over the weekend. The message will be “steady-as-she-goes, stability, no risks with the UK’s finances”. But will anyone outside Manchester Central be listening?

Judging by an opinion poll which yesterday put Labour 28 per cent behind the Tories, the public have given up on Brown & Co. This is the reason that backbench MPs plus one junior whip and one junior minister – none of them the usual troublemakers – have called for a leadership contest.

The extent of the disaffection, disappointment and dismay on Labour’s backbenches is illustrated by the language used by former minister George Howarth, who said Mr Brown was about as popular as Neville Chamberlain after Hitler had invaded Norway.

Disaffection, disappointment and dismay will surface in Manchester but the tipping point for Labour MPs will not come during the next few days.

Mr Brown will deliver an adequate if not scintillating speech, and the message will be hammered home that now is not the time to rock the boat with calls for a leadership election.

Someone suggested I take my wellies to Manchester to wade through all the blood on the floor. I don’t think I’ll need them – just yet.