More than a dozen Labour MPs across the West Midlands could be swept from their seats unless Gordon Brown improves the popularity of their party.

The prediction came from the Electoral Calculus group, which predicts General Election result in constituencies based on current opinion polls. Based on surveys involving 5,768 people between July 25 and August 21, and taking into account boundary changes finalised in 2006, Electoral Calculus’ latest prediction spells potential disaster for Labour.

Tories would have a Commons majority of 172, having nearly doubled their MPs to 411. The number of Labour MPs would more than halve to 165, and the number of Liberal Democrats would fall to 30.

Not only would marginal Labour seats such as Wolverhampton South West and Stourbridge fall to Tories, but others previously considered relatively safe seats, including Walsall North and South and Wyre Forest are also vulnerable.

Out would go Mr Brown’s parliamentary private secretary, Ian Austin, in Dudley North, and skills minister Ian Pearson in Dudley South. Also for the chop would be Deputy Commons Speaker Sylvia Heal in Halesowen and Rowley Regis.

The study emphasises how important the forthcoming Labour Party conference in Manchester is to Mr Brown. Labour is at a particularly low ebb and is expected to drive an autumn recovery, pushing into next year and into an election likely to be delayed until spring 2010.

Mr Brown will later this year announce measures designed to give short term help on increased living costs – particularly domestic fuel. He must then hope the economy starts to recover towards the end of next year and that a rosier economic outlook will dispel gloom only momentarily lifted by Olympics succes.

This scenario may change, however, if Labour MPs become panicky about their jobs and force out Mr Brown in favour of David Miliband or some other figure, who might be able to give the party the kind of boost John Major gave to the Tories after Margaret Thatcher was deposed in 1990.

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