Is the Premiership gap just too big to bridge? asks Albion blogger Jarrod Hill.
If you ask Derby fans I guess the answer would be yes, we have all witnessed their rather embarrassing season, and for fans of Championship sides striving for promotion, we all hope it is simply a one off.
Once promotion is gained the first target is survival, and unless you have been bought by a billionaire with an open cheque book, you need to invest funds carefully.
Other Premiership clubs have the benefit of already having a number of players capable of playing in the top league, and their investment can be focused towards quality rather than spread over the whole squad and various positions.
For example, if Bolton manages to stay up, they could look at their squad and say all we are lacking is a top quality striker to replace the departed Anelka. They then take their funds and invest in a £10million striker along with a few other additions.
On the other hand if Bristol City achieves promotion their funds may have to stretch to signing up to ten new players and when shopping in the £1-£3million pound bracket each signing becomes more of a gamble.
Sunderland have spent more than £30million on new players and have still been involved in a relegation battle, but if they were to survive their first season, they can invest again and strengthen in the areas needed, and the longer spent in the Premiership, the stronger your position becomes.
So how do you survive that first season??
Many would argue by simply being slightly better than three other teams, well firstly you can target the two other teams that are promoted, and then one other.
Sounds simple doesn’t it? But what happens when one of these teams has £40million to spend and you have £15million?
Reading has become the most recent model for aspiring Premiership clubs; they spent well within their budget, gave their existing players a chance to adapt to the top league, and more importantly, have given their manager time to develop his playing staff.
Yet even Reading has run into difficulties this season, you can see why popular opinion states the Premiership is the most difficult league in the world.
Maybe you are better off investing in two or three quality players and hoping your current players rise to the occasion, rather than trying to spread your funds to far and to wide.
When all is said and done you have to place total trust in your manager to know what is required and hope his investment in new players pays off. But recent history shows, the more money you have the better chance you have of surviving, but with there being more than one recent example of clubs gambling financially on success and then crashing spectacularly, none of us want our clubs futures put in jeopardy.
One school of thought is to implement a style of football that can not only get you promoted but also give you the best opportunity of surviving.
Fulham, Reading and more recently my beloved West Brom have been promoted on the back of playing possession, free flowing football, with an emphasis on technically gifted players. Fulham and Reading both survived their first seasons in the Promised Land, and may have shown the way forward.
Derby were promoted on the back of a football blueprint heavily used by managers seeking a way out of the Championship, tight defence, physical squad, and an ability to bully their way to promotion. Do not misunderstand me, I am no football purist who scorns the idea of a long ball, but when these teams then head into the Premiership with the same game plan we have all witnessed the consequences.
Another contributory factor is the ever widening financial gap between the two leagues, the money on offer does not even come close to comparison and maybe it is futile to ever believe that a Championship side could compete in the Premiership without major financial investment. When we are talking of a jump of revenue from possibly £3million to £30million+, Championship clubs do have the funds to strengthen their squads but do they have the time and a strong enough starting point in terms of their squad to compete with 17 other clubs who have received this amount of revenue for a number of years?
I am sorry, I do not have any answers, and maybe it is to simplistic to look at all promoted clubs in the same way, but the statistics show that at least two out of the three promoted clubs will get relegated.
What we are all fighting for is to be that statistical one that stays up, this season it has been the one that spent the most money, coincidence? Maybe, but the facts remain, if you want to stay up, you will need investment in your playing staff, a good manager, a style of football that will get you results, and a little bit of luck along the way.
Loading ...
29 Comments
Great blogg jarrod - really well put together…. and I agree with you that the odds on any championship side establishing themselves in the prem are low…. but as you say - there are examples, and they do tend to be sides who have good managers and who play attractive football.
There is an old addage that goals win games - and its true.
A team that can score, and plays a game that develops scoring opportunities will always have a chance- a heavyweights punch if you like.
This is where have failed in recent years - and where derby failed this year - but where we may just have a chance next year.
It takes a few years to become established - look at Portsmouth (who I think we can emulate). They have a good manager and play good football - but spent a few years fighting relegation (with us) - and now are starting to come good.
Whatever happens I can’t wait for it to get started.
If sunderland can do it then why can’t we !!!
Top blog Jarrod,
In my opinion our “ship” has a great captain in TM. I am sure that once armed with x amount of millions to spend that he will come up with the goods to help fight off relagation next year..
We are not fools , we have the basis of a good squad but we are under no illusions the squad at the moment would probably not be good enough to keep us in the premiership.
TM will I am sure be on the look out for a dominant defender or two
you only need to finish above stoke or hull and anyone that come through the playoffs cos you allways get a struggling team that in prem now like wigan ect
Very cogent blog very lucid points , it goes without saying the JP will not permit our club to be placed in financial jeopardy.
TM is quoted as saying that he Prem players are too expensive , and that he will not be tempted into buying ageing Prem players looking for a final pay packet. He has talked of going abroa looking ofr “gems” so of whom pay off some do not.
We have the nucleus of a Prem team (if we can keep hold of them) and as he said some will have to go “thats football”. so I rather think it will be more of a clear out and the replacement with more , but higher quality foreign “gems”
We all know he will not compromise on the way we play football so it will be a case of same as last time but with a few quality “unknown” players who fit into his team , and will understand the meaning of “team spirit”.
So in concluson we will play our way into the Premiership , there are plenty of teams I feel we can take points off.
It’s going to be an exciting ride and I feel that with TM and JP we will acquit ourselves very well
we got to turn draws into wins by playing attacking football. last year reading lost sim amount of games to clubs in lower half of table but hardly ever drew. even when robson let us off leash we looked half decent team in prem. when we beat blackburn around feb 06 we were 8 odd points clear, then went to spurs and tried to defend for rest of season. lets surprise few people and shut twats like lawrenson up. boing boing
Over the past few seasons it has become quite apparent that we are slightly too good for the championship but not good enough for the premiership.
The point that you raise is a valid one - just how do we get a foothold in the prem ?
You need about 9 or 10 wins and a few draws during a prem season to be safe.
Even if we beat the other 2 promoted teams twice that’s still 6 wins from establised prem teams we need to look at.
Let’s not kid ourselves - next season will be very difficult and we might get a few canings along the way.
It all makes for a very interesting summer.
I can’t wait !
Afternoon Jarrod
Nice bit of writing!
I think Mowbray will be very astute and hopefully not panic buy as many of the teams battling for survival in the Premiership have this season. Look at Fulham spending heavily on Kamara, £6 million? Others like Derby have tried and failed with big signings, so you have to tread carefully.
I think you have the advantage that I do believe many of the Albion players could cut it in the Premiership, but you will need to increase the squad size to cope.
It’ll be interesting watching how the Albion cope next season. I fully expect that Stoke and whoever goes up from the play-offs will tumble back down, along with West Ham who are in real dire financial difficulties.
Enjoyed the blog though Jarrod, nice to have something positive to write about.
I think we will all agree, it’s not how much you spend, it’s what you spend it on. Let’s not forget with the Sales of Kamara, Koumas, Ellington, Davies, McShane we generated over 26M and spent about half of that. Going up generates around 40M in your first season with two parachute payments of 11M if we are relagated. By my reckoning forgetting tickets sales, hospitality, shirt sales, sponsorship deals even taking into consideration wages TM should be given at least 20M to re-shape the squad to give us a fighting chance. That’s without the sales of other player we currently have Beattie, Slururski, Hodgekiss, Clement? and people off the wage bill on free transfers. I am not going to knock JP before we have all the facts as I have been one of his biggest critics in the past but after the business done last summer I am a great deal more confident in this manager to spend any money given to him wisely. Come on JP give him some money the club is in safe hands.
Boing Boing
HB
I understand what you are saying and it is interesting that you mentioned Portsmouth, i was reading an article yesterday that said that they are the 5th best payers in the Prem!!!
Sol Campbell earns apprx £80k a week, and when you read something like that you fear for the future of the game dont you.
Is anybody else struggling to come to terms with the fact we are promoted?? It still hasnt sunk in, and i am sober now aswell, well nearly!!!
Romsley Baggie
Ticket sales, we have sold out of season tickets already for next season,i was told today the waiting list is just over 3000 and counting!!!
How about this for a scenario, I reckon that survival in the premier league should be easier this time round. Regardless of whether you were for or against Megson and Robson it is undeniable that both had a part to play with their astute purchases in contributing to the financial strength of the club. When you take into account the monies paid to us for being a premiership club in the recent past and parachute payments none of the other potential promotion hopefuls will be able to match that. Jarrod makes the point that it’s not just about money, I totally agree, however if it’s available it increases your options.
When you look at the sides in the premier relegation shake up, five from the following will still remain in there Blues,Bolton,Reading,Fulham,Middlesborough, Wigan and Sunderland I don’t know about you but I reckon we’d give everyone of them a game with the current squad! let alone any additions. It is total speculation but there is a school of thought that still believes that had Robson been allowed to buy Hasselbaink and Ehiogu we might never have been relegated because a our side wasn’t that bad then.
We all know it is so much stonger now!
Now this is what gives me so much hope.
Robson wasn’t given the funding for those players because JP didn’t trust his footballing judgement, some may say he didn’t like him or Pearson at all, it doesn’t really matter, what we do know is that Peace will allow Tony Mowbray to spend as he sees fit. Why? because Tony is a realist he won’t want to spend millions on overated, over the hill has beens, but on young hungry players with something to prove who at the very minimum will have a resale value! He hasn’t done so bad thus far has he. What!! automatic promotion with a bunch of players nobody had heard of 9 months ago. Yes the future looks very rosy. Boing Boing stayin up say we are stayin up!!!!!
9 Sell Clem you are kidding ?
Let’s cut to the quick.
Gross Budget £66M - more likely < £30M (keeping some back for Jan 09, increased salaries and bonuses plus contingency for relegation.
Bearing in mind D Bent cost Spurs £17M, Kamara cost Fulham £6M, Owen cost Newcastle £17M, what’s a quality striker going to cost ? Can’t budget more than £10M if we also need a Keeper, Central defender, a “Makelele” type midfielder and (possibly) a Fullback for £20M plus add-in sales of existing (fringe) squad players (£5M - £10M) assuming regular first team stay. It means we look at (if not already) the likes of (for S, FB, GK, CB, M):
Kenwynne Jones, Frazier Campbell, Lita (as S)
Ramsey (Cardiff), Bradley Orr (Bristol C), Dan Fox, Glenn Johnson, (as FB)
Hennessey,Jaskalainnen, Kuszak,(as GK)
Sol Campbell, Shittu, Ryan Shawcross, (as CB)
Scott Dan, Kevin Nolan, Convey, Sidwell, Bullard, Scott Brown (as M) etc.
What are the chances of four/five of those for £30-40M plus their salaries? deebeee
I think the right signings and you could achieve what Newcastle did when they went up, not only stayed up but out played most at the time, who knows!
First off Congrats on promotion.
I think next season will be hard for you but i think you will be fine. You have a great midfield and texiria (spelling?) to come back 3 good strikers and a decent base to build on with regards to defence so i think a bit of investment in a goalkeeper, central defender and maybe one more striker and pad out your squad a bit you will stay up.
You also have the benefit of being up and down a couple of times and you tend to find the teams that have done this are best placed to stay up.
Just a view from the outside looking in.
Anyway good luck next season in the prem hope we can join you if not this season then next.
Deebee
Its funny that you have mentioned Kuszak, you are the third person i have heard say that name in the last two days. Others in your list that could be possibles are Frazier Campbell, Shittu, and Sidwell. However due to Mowbrays ideologies none are likely, but hey we are all playing a guessing game, but what a great game hey. I love the fact we are talking about what we need for THE PREMIERSHIP!!!!!!!
Baggiedad,
are you Worthy senior???
Very good blog Jarrod, well-constructed and raises some interesting points for debate. I think that Albion should be well equipped to survive the Premier League next season - on the assumption that Mowbray should stick to his footballing principles I think you have as good a chance as Sunderland this season (with some additional investment of course).
For us lot, on the other hand, I cannot help but think that if we were to reach the play-offs and win at Wembley, we would not be quite so fortunate in the top division. Don’t get me wrong - I will be shouting the team on from the SB Upper on Sunday like everyone else (with one ear pressed up to the radio for scores elsewhere!), but there is a real concern that if we do make it, we could potentially do as badly as Derby have this season, which surely cannot be conducive to future success in the long run. We shall wait and see…
Anyway, best of luck to Albion at QPR - as I mentioned yesterday, the thought of those thick ugly clayheads lifting the Championship on Sunday is enough to put me off my roast beef and Yorkshire pud! So I hope you go out with a bang… come 4pm we will know whether or not our season is destined to continue for a few more weeks, or if it is to end in the perennial disappointment that we Wolves fans have become so accustomed to over recent years. Either way, it’s going to be emotional..
18 wbabomber
That one went straight over my head
Bomber - I didn’t realise Pompy paid that much, although they have had a couple of owners to bankroll them - but I’m sure they were not paying that much in their first or second season in the prem - they have developed over time, and thats how i see us going - although i don’t think TM and JP would pay sol Campbell £80k !!!
I just look at them, and Bolton and think “we could do that”. I’m positive that ToMO can match what ‘Arry and Big sam acheived in time - but we need to cling onto our place first - just as Pompy did.
13. Blackpool Baggie - Altho Clement has been a huge part of our recent run of form is he really good enough for teh Prem? I’ll be honest and from the 3 seasons we’ve been there I’d have to say no. A great squad player to have as can play in 3/4 positions and plays football the TM way but as a regular 1st team centre back - I don’t think he’ll cut it
Jarrod, a stimulating blog.
If you look at this thru the eyes of WBA as a “Team, Squad or Player”, I’d say it might be.
However, if you look at this thru the eyes of WBA as a “Business”, I feel that we are very well placed to step confidently onto that bridge this time .
First time up back in 2000, did we have … players with Premiership experience? a “pass & possess” product for that market? quality on the subs bench? a big squad? a scouting system? a developed training ground? an indoor pitch? an academy? a Premiership oriented organisation structure?
I’d say the answers were pretty much an emphatic “No”. Even at second time of asking, we still had significant gaps in the business infrastructure. The Board had little scope to invest.
What we’ve done as a business these past 8 years is jumped up, taken money & experience, come down, and invested with breadth & wisdom.
As a business proposition, we now have much more depth & breadth than 8 years ago, and JP has to take considerable credit for that.
For the first time, we are now at least on a par with the current handful of clubs at the bottom of the Premiership. That is one gap we have bridged.
This time will be less about catch up, and more about deepening the skills in maybe 5-6 key areas, as well as broadening the size of the squad.
To me, its about having the right “Business Package”; the one required for the Championship is different from that required in the Premiership.
This year, I believe that the Baggies have a much stronger Package, one that gives the Board more freedom to make those difficult investment choices.
Given Sunderland’s prior infrastructure, they were better placed to invest on the pitch. Derby however, were not, and their choices were more limited.
The Premiership race is about making the right investment decisions, and the Derby Board chose a Business strategy limited in scope & investment. This means they look to learn, strengthen, and fight another day.
The only conclusion I’d draw from this year’s Derby, is that success is about choosing “Horses for Courses …”
Definately keep Clem - he won’t always be a first or second choise CB next season but a solid dependable and experienced character who is albion thru and thru and would be great cover/competition.
Blackpoolbaggie@work, No I wasn’t kidding, Clem has been fantastic since he has come back into the team at Championship level but first choice centre half for us in the Prem?, not good enough i’m afraid. Squad player yes, first choice centre half no if we want to be honest.
Boing Boing
you will stay up quite easily i believe-genuinely, you have one of the most astute managers around and a few quid too!!!! cant say the same about the 2 that go up whoever they are, as far as i can see the promotion contenders havent the set up or resources you have got, even us im afraid to say but that is down to man management team and money management team!! Enjoy it!
Would it be the end of the world if we gave this squad a chance obviously with the odd signing to freshen things up a bit? I really don’t think so. Think we’ll spend 10 million on players AND wages and see where we are xmas!
Peace will never risk the club with stupid signings like hasslebaink,and the villa b~@tard ugo.egg ed!
I for 1 am glad.. UEFA cup bound baggies….
Money certainly talks in the premiership! Pompey have established themselves but they were certainties for the drop the year we went down, then some rich bloke came and bailed them out.It is a lot easier with a seriously rich backer as that gives you an edge.We have been managed brilliantly but I reckon to become a decent premiership side we will need someone with deep pockets.Not sure I want it to happen though.
27, Super Stripes, without additions to this squad we will struggle to stay in the Prem. Like i said in an earlier post it’s not what we spend it’s what we spend it on. We definately won’t go for names although Jimmy Bullard would do very nicely indeed. With all the money obtain last close season and money for promotion realistically the quality we would need to buy to stay up would cost 30M or so. If we are all being honest we need a keeper, at least 2 defenders to play not squad players, 2 central midfield players to compete with Greening/Koren Nolan and bullard spring to mind!, and at least 1 striker maybe 2 depending on sales and if Super Kev signs a new deal. The Prem is a totally differen’t level and if we want to establish ourselves we need more quality. Don’t worry though TM knows what he’s doing.
Boing Boing